GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
18 / 100
LOW1 day -4 · 7 day -18
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Escalating Tensions: Drone: GERI 18 | Energy Risk Jul 29 — July 29, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 18 (LOW) on 2026-07-28. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 18; 1-day change: -4.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-07-28.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€58.79/MWh
+2.42%
Source date: 2026-07-28
VIX
18.21 points
-0.46 points
Source date: 2026-07-28
Brent Crude
$85.52/bbl
+0.26%
Source date: 2026-07-28
EUR/USD
1.1369 USD/EUR
-0.22%
Source date: 2026-07-28
EU Gas Storage
56.10%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-07-28
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Escalating Tensions: Drone Attack on Saudi Oil Facilities Intercepted - Devdiscourse | 5 | 4.6% | Saudi Aramco & Saudi Oil |
| Houthis Claim Fourth Attack on Saudi Tanker as Red Sea Blockade Intensifies | 5 | 22.4% | gCaptain Maritime |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone despite ongoing Middle East conflict.
- Contagion Status: Regional geopolitical tensions contained; no broad contagion to global markets observed.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Europe: High spillover risk maintained due to Saudi refinery shutdown impacting global supply chains.
- Middle East → Russia: Limited direct spillover, though missile attack attribution to Houthis in Russia region signals potential risk expansion.
- Energy Markets → FX: EUR/USD down 0.22%, reflecting risk-off sentiment linked to Middle East tensions.
- No significant contagion into North American or Asian energy markets detected.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €58.79/MWh | +2.42% |
| VIX | 18.21 points | -0.46 points |
| Brent Crude | $85.52/bbl | +0.26% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1369 USD/EUR | -0.22% |
| EU Gas Storage | 56.10% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- GERI and EERI remain elevated but declining, while Brent and TTF prices show modest gains, indicating partial market complacency or expectation of conflict containment.
- VIX decline suggests equity markets discounting escalation probability despite ongoing attacks.
- Divergence suggests a potential underpricing of geopolitical risk in energy prices, warranting caution.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite a stabilizing risk tone, the Middle East remains a critical flashpoint for energy market volatility. The repeated Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers and refinery shutdowns sustain elevated geopolitical stress, reflected in the EGSI-M index. Market pricing shows modest energy price gains but a divergence with declining event risk indices and lower volatility, suggesting partial complacency. The probability of further escalation remains material, particularly if attacks intensify or Iran-related conflict expands. Traders should maintain vigilance on key risk indicators, hedge appropriately, and prepare for potential rapid regime shifts. European gas markets show heightened sensitivity, with storage levels currently providing a buffer but warranting close monitoring. Overall, the current environment favors a cautious stance with flexible risk management strategies.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +0.20% between recorded quotes; TTF +2.42% between recorded quotes; GERI 22 → 18. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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