GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
22 / 100
MODERATE1 day 0 · 7 day -18
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Yemen's Houthi Rebels: GERI 22 | Energy Risk Jul 28 — July 28, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 22 (MODERATE) on 2026-07-27. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 22; 1-day change: 0.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-07-27.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€57.40/MWh
-1.14%
Source date: 2026-07-27
VIX
18.67 points
+0.09 points
Source date: 2026-07-27
Brent Crude
$85.35/bbl
-2.68%
Source date: 2026-07-27
EUR/USD
1.1395 USD/EUR
+0.17%
Source date: 2026-07-27
EU Gas Storage
55.90%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-07-27
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yemen's Houthi Rebels Claim Strike on Saudi Pipeline Infrastructure | 5 | 22.3% | Maritime Executive |
| Trump Says US and Tehran Having ‘Good Talks’ as Drones Hit Iran’s Neighbors | 5 | 7.5% | gCaptain Maritime |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Low risk, stable with no regime classification triggered despite geopolitical tensions.
- Contagion Status: Moderate contagion from Middle East conflicts to global energy markets, limited spillover to Europe and North America.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 22
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global Energy Markets: Houthis’ strikes and pipeline blockades push Brent crude above $100 in alerts, though market price fell 2.68%, indicating overreaction or profit-taking.
- Middle East → North America: US LNG cargo prices near 3-year highs due to Iran war risk, supporting sustained energy premium.
- Europe → Global: Ukrainian port attacks raise war risk but limited direct impact on EU gas storage (up 0.2%) and TTF gas prices (-1.14%), suggesting resilience or hedging.
- Russia → Global: Sanctions on energy partnerships increase risk perception but not yet translating into price spikes.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €57.40/MWh | -1.14% |
| VIX | 18.67 points | +0.09 points |
| Brent Crude | $85.35/bbl | -2.68% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1395 USD/EUR | +0.17% |
| EU Gas Storage | 55.90% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Rising EERI (Locked — free account) contrasts with declining Brent (Locked — free account) and TTF (Locked — free account), indicating market pricing may be discounting risk or anticipating resolution.
- EU gas storage increase (+0.2%) supports supply buffer narrative, reducing immediate price pressure despite geopolitical alerts.
- VIX stable, suggesting equity markets not pricing in systemic energy risk escalation.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite a low overall risk regime, the sharp increase in energy event risk (EERI Locked — free account) driven by Middle East conflict and Iran war risk is a key driver of market uncertainty. The disconnect between rising geopolitical risk and falling Brent and TTF prices suggests markets are either pricing in short-term resolution or profit-taking after recent price spikes. LNG remains a focal point for risk premium due to US cargo values near multi-year highs, reflecting tight supply amid geopolitical tensions. The resilience in EU gas storage and stable volatility indexes indicate that broader market stress remains contained for now. Traders should monitor Middle East conflict escalation and US-Iran diplomacy closely, as these are the most probable triggers for regime shifts and price volatility. Hedging strategies in Brent and LNG, alongside cautious positioning in European industrial exposure, are advisable given the current risk landscape.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -7.86% between recorded quotes; TTF -1.14% between recorded quotes; GERI 22 → 22. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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