GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
22 / 100
MODERATE1 day -1 · 7 day -18
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
US-Iran Strikes Halted: GERI 22 | Energy Risk Jul 27 — July 27, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 22 (MODERATE) on 2026-07-26. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 22; 1-day change: -1.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-07-26.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€58.06/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-07-24
VIX
18.58 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-07-24
Brent Crude
$92.63/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-07-24
EUR/USD
1.1375 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-07-24
EU Gas Storage
55.70%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-07-26
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran Strikes Halted as Diplomacy Takes Over, But Houthi Attacks Threaten Saudi Oil Routes - finance.biggo.com | 5 | 12.0% | Saudi Aramco & Saudi Oil |
| US pauses Iran strikes but conflict spreads to Red Sea and Caspian - The Australian | 5 | 17.1% | Saudi Aramco & Saudi Oil |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
Regime: Stabilizing
Contagion Status: Localized Middle East conflict risk contained but with emerging spillover threats to maritime oil routes and European jet fuel markets. Risk tone easing as US-Iran direct strikes pause, yet Houthi proxy attacks sustain regional tension.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 22
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Europe:
- Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities and Red Sea blockade threaten global oil supply chains, pushing jet fuel costs higher in Europe (+5-10% impact on aviation fuel prices).
- Middle East → South America:
- Argentina’s Vaca Muerta production surge partially offsets global supply concerns, acting as a stabilizing factor.
- Europe → Global:
- Conflict-driven volatility in European gas markets remains muted; TTF gas down 8.77% suggests market pricing in supply resilience despite geopolitical tensions.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €58.06/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 18.58 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $92.63/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1375 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 55.70% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- GERI and EERI declines contrast with persistent high EGSI-M, indicating market underpricing of Middle East proxy conflict risk.
- Brent’s 4.29% drop may be premature given continued Houthi attacks and Red Sea blockade threats.
- TTF gas price drop diverges from geopolitical risk, suggesting market confidence in European supply buffers and storage levels.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The recent pause in US-Iran strikes has marginally reduced headline geopolitical risk, reflected in lower GERI and EERI scores and a notable decline in Brent crude and European gas prices. However, persistent Houthi missile and drone attacks on critical Saudi oil infrastructure sustain elevated Middle East geopolitical stress (EGSI-M stable at Locked — free account), posing ongoing threats to global oil supply chains, particularly through the Red Sea choke points. This asymmetry creates a divergence where market prices may understate latent risk, especially in oil markets.
European gas market softness, supported by rising storage levels, suggests resilience despite regional tensions, while Argentina’s record oil production growth adds a stabilizing supply-side factor. The risk regime remains in a stabilizing phase but with a significant 25% probability of escalation if proxy conflicts intensify or diplomatic efforts falter.
Traders should monitor proxy conflict dynamics and maritime security closely, as renewed escalation could rapidly reverse recent price declines and increase volatility. Hedging strategies focusing on oil and jet fuel exposure are advisable, while European gas positions may benefit from current supply buffers.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -6.15% between recorded quotes; TTF -8.77% between recorded quotes; GERI 23 → 22. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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