GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
23 / 100
MODERATE1 day -10 · 7 day -17
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Iran War Day: GERI 23 | Energy Risk Jul 26 — July 26, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 23 (MODERATE) on 2026-07-25. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 23; 1-day change: -10.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-07-25.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€63.64/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-07-24
VIX
18.58 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-07-24
Brent Crude
$98.70/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-07-24
EUR/USD
1.1375 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-07-24
EU Gas Storage
55.40%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-07-25
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran War Day 148: U.S. Appears to Pause Iran Strikes, While Houthis Hit Saudi Oil Facilities - The American Conservative | 5 | 12.6% | Saudi Aramco & Saudi Oil |
| Tensions Escalate: Yemen's Houthi Attacks on Saudi Oil Ports - Devdiscourse | 5 | 12.8% | Saudi Aramco & Saudi Oil |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone despite ongoing Middle East conflict escalation.
- Contagion Status: Regional Middle East war risk remains elevated but contained; no immediate spillover to European gas markets or volatility indices.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 23
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East war risk remains the primary driver of elevated geopolitical risk but is currently not transmitting materially to European energy markets.
- Brent crude price increase (+1.98%) reflects risk premium from Middle East attacks but no corresponding jump in European natural gas or volatility indices, indicating limited contagion.
- Russian regional tensions (Iran condemning Ukrainian strike) add secondary risk layer but no immediate market impact observed.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €63.64/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 18.58 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $98.70/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1375 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 55.40% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Brent crude price (Locked — free account) is rising in line with Middle East war risk alerts but GERI and EERI indices are falling, signaling market pricing may be discounting some risk due to stable European supply fundamentals.
- VIX decline (-0.12) suggests market volatility expectations are not rising commensurately with geopolitical news, indicating possible market complacency or risk absorption.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite multiple high-severity alerts regarding missile strikes on Saudi oil facilities and ongoing US-Iran tensions, the global energy risk indices have softened, reflecting a market perception that the conflict is contained and that European energy fundamentals remain robust. Brent crude’s near 2% rise signals a persistent risk premium priced in, but flat TTF gas and rising EU storage indicate limited immediate supply disruption fears in Europe. The risk regime remains stabilizing, though the probability of escalation remains material given the fragile ceasefire and US deliberations on military action. Traders should remain vigilant for sudden regime shifts triggered by military escalations or diplomatic breakthroughs, adjusting portfolio exposures accordingly to oil price volatility and European gas fundamentals.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +1.98% between recorded quotes; TTF +0.00% between recorded quotes; GERI 33 → 23. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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