GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
33 / 100
MODERATE1 day -22 · 7 day -8
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Grains Markets Hit: GERI 33 | Energy Risk Jul 25 — July 25, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 33 (MODERATE) on 2026-07-24. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 33; 1-day change: -22.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-07-24.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€63.64/MWh
+1.35%
Source date: 2026-07-24
VIX
18.58 points
-0.12 points
Source date: 2026-07-24
Brent Crude
$96.78/bbl
-3.95%
Source date: 2026-07-24
EUR/USD
1.1375 USD/EUR
-0.32%
Source date: 2026-07-24
EU Gas Storage
55.10%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-07-24
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grains Markets Hit New Highs on Black Sea Attacks, Crude Oil Rally | 5 | 5.4% | gCaptain Maritime |
| US strikes tanker over alleged Iranian gas cargo — Iran’s state broadcaster | 5 | 11.7% | TASS World News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Moderate risk tone persists amid escalating Middle East conflict and Black Sea tensions.
- Contagion Status: Elevated cross-regional contagion risk due to simultaneous geopolitical flashpoints in Middle East (Hormuz, Yemen) and Black Sea (grain and energy supply disruptions).
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 33
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global Energy Markets: Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers and telecoms, plus Strait of Hormuz closure, are driving insurance pullbacks and export risks, pushing Brent crude volatility and increasing LNG supply concerns.
- Black Sea → Grain and Energy Prices: Attacks in Black Sea region elevate grain market prices, indirectly pressuring energy markets due to feedstock and biofuel cost effects.
- Russia → Global War Risk: US strikes on tanker with alleged Iranian gas cargo amplify war risk perceptions, increasing global risk premiums.
- Asia → Economic Risk: Renewed US-Iran conflict threatens India’s energy security, amplifying regional economic risk and potential demand-side shocks.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €63.64/MWh | +1.35% |
| VIX | 18.58 points | -0.12 points |
| Brent Crude | $96.78/bbl | -3.95% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1375 USD/EUR | -0.32% |
| EU Gas Storage | 55.10% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Brent Crude Price vs GERI: Brent’s near 4% drop contrasts with only moderate GERI decline, indicating market short-term profit-taking amid sustained geopolitical risk. Risk signals remain elevated, suggesting price pullback may be temporary.
- TTF Gas vs EERI: Gas price rise aligns with EERI increase, confirming economic risk concerns are being priced into European gas markets.
- VIX vs War Alerts: VIX remains subdued despite multiple war alerts, indicating potential underpricing of volatility risk in equity markets.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS WITH PORTFOLIO IMPLICATIONS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
EnergyRiskIQ algorithms identify a complex risk environment where geopolitical flashpoints in the Middle East and Black Sea are driving elevated economic and energy market risks. Despite a recent Brent crude price pullback, risk premia remain elevated, reflecting ongoing supply uncertainty and insurance market disruptions. European gas markets show resilience with rising prices and tight storage, underscoring vulnerability to further supply shocks. The divergence between volatility indices and war alerts suggests market complacency that could be challenged by sudden escalations, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz. Portfolio strategies should balance exposure to energy price upside with hedging against volatility and supply chain interruptions. Close monitoring of diplomatic developments and insurance market signals is critical for anticipating regime shifts.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -3.94% between recorded quotes; TTF +1.35% between recorded quotes; GERI 55 → 33. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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