GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
55 / 100
ELEVATED1 day 10 · 7 day 17
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Houthis Attack Saudi: GERI 55 | Energy Risk Jul 24 — July 24, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 55 (ELEVATED) on 2026-07-23. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 55; 1-day change: 10.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-07-23.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€62.79/MWh
-0.14%
Source date: 2026-07-23
VIX
18.70 points
+2.06 points
Source date: 2026-07-23
Brent Crude
$100.75/bbl
+4.70%
Source date: 2026-07-23
EUR/USD
1.1412 USD/EUR
+0.07%
Source date: 2026-07-23
EU Gas Storage
54.80%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-07-23
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
Regime: Elevated & Rising Geopolitical Risk
Contagion Status: Middle East conflict risk is intensifying with potential spillover to global energy markets.
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index) surged +10 to 55, indicating heightened geopolitical tensions primarily driven by Middle East conflict escalation.
- EERI (Energy Economic Risk Index) declined Locked — free account to Locked — free account, reflecting some easing in economic risk factors but overshadowed by geopolitical concerns.
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission) remains elevated at Locked — free account, consistent with ongoing conflict and attacks on oil infrastructure.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 55
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East conflict risk is the primary driver; spillover seen in European energy markets via shipping route disruption risks in the Red Sea.
- IMO condemnation signals rising global maritime risk awareness, potentially pressuring insurance and shipping costs.
- EU gas storage stability (+0.20%) partially buffers European markets, but Brent crude price surge (+4.7%) indicates global oil market sensitivity to Middle East tensions.
- VIX up +2.06 points signals increased overall market volatility, likely linked to geopolitical uncertainty.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €62.79/MWh | -0.14% |
| VIX | 18.70 points | +2.06 points |
| Brent Crude | $100.75/bbl | +4.70% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1412 USD/EUR | +0.07% |
| EU Gas Storage | 54.80% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Brent crude price surge (+4.7%) aligns with GERI increase (+10), confirming market pricing of heightened geopolitical risk.
- TTF gas (-0.14%) and EU gas storage (+0.20%) show divergence from oil market risk, indicating localized energy market resilience in Europe.
- VIX increase (+2.06) consistent with elevated risk tone; no significant divergence.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The recent surge in Middle East geopolitical risk, driven by coordinated Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers amid ongoing US strikes on Iran, has sharply elevated global energy risk perception. Brent crude’s rebound above $100/bbl (+4.7%) reflects market concerns over supply disruption through critical maritime chokepoints like the Red Sea. Despite this, European gas markets show resilience, supported by stable storage levels and minimal price reaction. The divergence between oil and gas markets underscores the regional nature of current risk, but the potential for escalation remains significant, with a near 40% probability of transition to a crisis regime. Traders should prepare for heightened volatility, monitor shipping risk indicators, and consider hedging strategies in oil-exposed assets while maintaining vigilance on geopolitical developments.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +4.86% between recorded quotes; TTF -0.14% between recorded quotes; GERI 45 → 55. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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