GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
45 / 100
ELEVATED1 day -8 · 7 day 8
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Hormuz: GERI 45 | Energy Risk Jul 23 — July 23, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 45 (ELEVATED) on 2026-07-22. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 45; 1-day change: -8.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-07-22.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€62.88/MWh
+4.92%
Source date: 2026-07-22
VIX
16.64 points
-0.41 points
Source date: 2026-07-22
Brent Crude
$96.08/bbl
+4.89%
Source date: 2026-07-22
EUR/USD
1.1404 USD/EUR
-0.12%
Source date: 2026-07-22
EU Gas Storage
54.60%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-07-22
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| IEA head flags European exposure to longer Hormuz LNG disruptions | 5 | 36.9% | Hellenic Shipping News — Oil & Energy |
| U.S. Polar Security Cutter Delayed to 2033 as Costs Top $6 Billion, GAO Warns | 5 | 2.8% | gCaptain Maritime |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Moderate risk environment with heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
- Contagion Status: Emerging contagion from Middle East conflict into European energy markets and global shipping lanes.
- Risk Tone: Elevated Middle East conflict risk drives energy supply concerns, partially offset by stable financial volatility (VIX down slightly).
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 45
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Europe:
- IEA flags prolonged Hormuz LNG disruption risks impacting European gas supply.
- EU Gas Storage marginally up (+0.20%), but vulnerability remains high due to LNG import dependency.
- Middle East → Global Shipping:
- Houthi blockade and Saudi tanker route alterations disrupt Red Sea shipping lanes, affecting global crude flows to Asia (India, China).
- Middle East → Russia:
- Iranian military warnings of conflict expansion raise risk of broader regional instability, potentially impacting Russian geopolitical posture.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €62.88/MWh | +4.92% |
| VIX | 16.64 points | -0.41 points |
| Brent Crude | $96.08/bbl | +4.89% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1404 USD/EUR | -0.12% |
| EU Gas Storage | 54.60% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing Gap:
- Elevated EERI (Locked — free account) signals heightened event risk not fully priced into VIX (down Locked — free account).
- Brent and TTF gas prices have reacted sharply (+~5%), indicating energy markets are pricing in supply disruption risk ahead of broader financial market volatility.
- EUR/USD minor decline (-0.12%) suggests cautious risk-off but limited currency stress so far.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The latest alerts underscore a significant risk concentration in the Middle East, specifically around the Hormuz Strait and Red Sea shipping lanes. Energy markets are pricing in these risks aggressively, as evidenced by near 5% daily gains in Brent and TTF gas prices. Meanwhile, financial market volatility remains subdued, suggesting that broader risk contagion is still in early stages. The divergence between event risk indices and market volatility signals a potential for rapid regime shifts should conflict intensify or diplomatic efforts fail. European energy security remains vulnerable due to LNG import dependence and limited storage buffer, heightening the risk of price spikes. Traders should prioritize monitoring geopolitical developments closely and consider tactical positioning in energy assets and related hedges.
---
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +5.01% between recorded quotes; TTF +4.92% between recorded quotes; GERI 53 → 45. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
Create a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios.
| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
Get tomorrow’s risk signals before the market moves.
Open a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios. Real-time features depend on product subscription.
Create free accountDaily Intelligence Report is an account-managed paid product.