GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
53 / 100
ELEVATED1 day 7 · 7 day 17
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Two Saudi oil: GERI 53 | Energy Risk Jul 22 — July 22, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 53 (ELEVATED) on 2026-07-21. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 53; 1-day change: 7.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-07-21.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€59.93/MWh
+3.54%
Source date: 2026-07-21
VIX
17.05 points
-1.60 points
Source date: 2026-07-21
Brent Crude
$91.50/bbl
+2.96%
Source date: 2026-07-21
EUR/USD
1.1418 USD/EUR
-0.08%
Source date: 2026-07-21
EU Gas Storage
54.40%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-07-21
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Two Saudi oil tankers make U-turns after Houthi Warning in Red Sea - Marine News Magazine | 5 | 20.1% | Saudi Aramco & Saudi Oil |
| Houthis enforce Red Sea blockade, putting Saudi oil at risk for the first time - thepost.co.nz | 5 | 20.4% | Saudi Aramco & Saudi Oil |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Elevated & Rising risk environment driven by escalating Middle East conflict and Black Sea export disruptions.
- Contagion Status: Active contagion from Middle East to Black Sea and European energy markets, with risk spillover into global oil and gas supply chains.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 53
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global Oil Markets: Houthi blockade and tanker U-turns elevate risk of Saudi oil export disruption, pushing Brent prices higher (+2.96%).
- Middle East → Europe: Elevated maritime risk and Hormuz Strait instability pressure European gas markets, reflected in TTF gas +3.54%.
- Black Sea → Europe & Asia: Kazakhstan export suspension and CPC tanker attacks threaten crude supply routes, increasing regional energy security concerns.
- Europe → FX: Slight EUR/USD depreciation (-0.08%) suggests risk-off sentiment linked to regional conflict and energy uncertainty.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €59.93/MWh | +3.54% |
| VIX | 17.05 points | -1.60 points |
| Brent Crude | $91.50/bbl | +2.96% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1418 USD/EUR | -0.08% |
| EU Gas Storage | 54.40% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: Brent and TTF gas prices are rising in line with elevated GERI, indicating market recognition of supply risks.
- VIX divergence: Despite rising energy risk, equity volatility decreased slightly, suggesting decoupling or short-term risk tolerance.
- EUR/USD: Minor depreciation consistent with risk but no sharp flight-to-safety move, indicating moderate market stress.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The energy risk environment is intensifying, primarily driven by Middle East maritime conflict and Black Sea export disruptions. The sharp rise in the GERI (+7) reflects growing concerns over supply chain integrity, particularly Saudi oil exports threatened by Houthi blockades. Brent crude and TTF gas prices are responding accordingly, with increases of +2.96% and +3.54%, respectively, signaling market pricing of elevated geopolitical risk.
Despite the rising energy risk, equity market volatility (VIX) has slightly declined, suggesting a temporary risk-on stance or delayed equity market reaction. The EUR/USD pair’s modest depreciation points to regional risk concerns but lacks a strong flight-to-safety dynamic.
The probability of further supply disruptions remains material, with a 35% chance of escalation into a crisis regime within two weeks if maritime tensions worsen. Energy sector participants should prepare for sustained price volatility and potential supply shortages, with LNG demand
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +2.95% between recorded quotes; TTF +3.54% between recorded quotes; GERI 46 → 53. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
Create a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios.
| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
Get tomorrow’s risk signals before the market moves.
Open a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios. Real-time features depend on product subscription.
Create free accountDaily Intelligence Report is an account-managed paid product.