GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
46 / 100
ELEVATED1 day 22 · 7 day 10
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
US launches new: GERI 46 | Energy Risk Jul 21 — July 21, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 46 (ELEVATED) on 2026-07-20. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 46; 1-day change: 22.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-07-20.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€57.88/MWh
-3.21%
Source date: 2026-07-20
VIX
18.65 points
-0.12 points
Source date: 2026-07-20
Brent Crude
$88.88/bbl
-1.97%
Source date: 2026-07-20
EUR/USD
1.1428 USD/EUR
-0.16%
Source date: 2026-07-20
EU Gas Storage
54.20%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-07-20
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| US launches new strikes after Iran-backed Houthis declare blockade of another key oil route - SMH.com.au | 5 | 20.2% | Saudi Aramco & Saudi Oil |
| Europe gas prices surge 3% to multi-month highs on Strait of Hormuz tanker fire | 5 | 36.9% | Hellenic Shipping News — Oil & Energy |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Current Regime: Moderate risk environment with heightened geopolitical tension in the Middle East and Black Sea regions.
- Contagion Status: Elevated contagion risk primarily from Middle East conflict spillovers affecting European energy markets and global shipping lanes.
- Risk Indices: GERI at Locked — free account (Locked — free account) and EERI at Locked — free account (Locked — free account) indicate a sharp increase in global and European energy risk, driven by conflict and supply disruptions. EGSI-M at Locked — free account confirms moderate energy supply stress.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 46
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Europe: Strait of Hormuz incidents and Houthi blockades cause European gas price spikes and LNG supply uncertainties.
- Middle East → Global Shipping: Increased war risk leads to premium on shipping routes, incentivizing higher seafarer pay and insurance costs.
- Black Sea → Europe: Missile strikes on grain and oil shipments disrupt Black Sea exports, pressuring European energy and food markets.
- Russia → Global: Saudi-led coalition warnings and regional war escalation risk further destabilizing global energy flows.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €57.88/MWh | -3.21% |
| VIX | 18.65 points | -0.12 points |
| Brent Crude | $88.88/bbl | -1.97% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1428 USD/EUR | -0.16% |
| EU Gas Storage | 54.20% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Risk indices surged (>20 points), signaling heightened geopolitical risk.
- Brent and TTF gas prices corrected downward (~2-3%), indicating market may be pricing in partial risk mitigation or short-term profit-taking.
- Divergence suggests market uncertainty on conflict duration and impact severity.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS: PORTFOLIO IMPLICATIONS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The sharp rise in global and European energy risk indices reflects escalating geopolitical tensions centered on the Middle East and Black Sea regions. The US military strikes following Houthi blockades, combined with tanker fires in the Strait of Hormuz, have pushed energy markets into a state of heightened alert. Despite Brent crude nearing $90, recent price pullbacks suggest market participants are weighing the potential for short-term disruption against longer-term risk mitigation. European gas prices remain sensitive to supply uncertainties, though stable storage levels provide a temporary buffer.
The risk contagion is pronounced: Middle East conflict directly pressures European energy markets and global shipping lanes, while Black Sea disruptions add complexity to supply chains. The probability of moving into a high-risk regime is significant if blockades and strikes persist, warranting active risk management strategies. Traders should monitor multi-week indicators closely, focusing on shipping corridor status and military developments, to anticipate supply shocks and price volatility.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -0.41% between recorded quotes; TTF -3.21% between recorded quotes; GERI 24 → 46. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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