GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
24 / 100
MODERATE1 day 3 · 7 day -10
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Oil volatility is: GERI 24 | Energy Risk Jul 20 — July 20, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 24 (MODERATE) on 2026-07-19. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 24; 1-day change: 3.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-07-19.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€59.80/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-07-17
VIX
18.77 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-07-17
Brent Crude
$89.25/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-07-17
EUR/USD
1.1446 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-07-17
EU Gas Storage
54.00%
+0.60 pp
Source date: 2026-07-19
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil volatility is creating a ‘win-win’ trade strategy | 5 | 38.8% | Hellenic Shipping News — Oil & Energy |
| How much of China’s crude demand will return? | 5 | 7.3% | Hellenic Shipping News — Shipping |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Low Risk, but rising tension signals emerging localized shocks.
- Contagion Status: Moderate contagion potential, primarily from Middle East and Black Sea conflict zones impacting global energy flows.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 24
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Asia & Europe: Hormuz disruption and Iran’s power blackouts propagate risk to Asian refinery operations and European energy security via oil and gas price spikes.
- Black Sea → Europe: Drone strikes on Caspian Pipeline Consortium and CPC terminal threaten 1.58 mb/d oil flow, pressuring European crude supply and storage.
- Europe → Global: Russia’s ballistic barrage in Ukraine escalates war risk, increasing volatility and risk premiums globally.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €59.80/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 18.77 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $89.25/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1446 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 54.00% | +0.60 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: Brent crude’s +1.12% gain is modest relative to the 3-point GERI rise, indicating some risk premium is not fully priced.
- TTF Gas’s Locked — free account surge aligns with elevated EERI and EGSI-M, suggesting market is pricing in near-term supply disruptions.
- VIX increase (+2.04%) confirms rising market uncertainty but remains below crisis levels.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The current low risk regime masks growing localized geopolitical tensions that are increasingly impacting critical energy supply routes. The Middle East’s Hormuz Strait remains a flashpoint with potential to remove up to 2 mb/d of crude supply, while Black Sea pipeline disruptions threaten nearly 1.6 mb/d. These supply shocks are driving Brent crude modestly higher, but gas markets are more sensitive, with TTF surging over 4%. The risk indices signal elevated event risk and geopolitical stress, suggesting that market volatility and risk premiums will rise if conflict escalates or supply disruptions persist. Traders should monitor the watchlist indicators closely for early signs of regime shift, as the probability of moving into a medium risk state is non-negligible in the near term. Sector-wise, power and industrial metals face direct disruption, while LNG demand and storage dynamics in Europe are tightening. Positioning for increased volatility and supply-driven price spikes is prudent, with scenario planning emphasizing readiness for both escalation and de-escalation outcomes.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
No prior forecast-and-outcome pair is stored for this issue yet.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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