GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
17 / 100
LOW1 day 3 · 7 day 0
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Iran Strikes Saudi:: GERI 17 | Energy Risk May 15 — May 15, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 17 (LOW) on 2026-05-14. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 17; 1-day change: 3.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-05-14.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€47.90/MWh
+2.72%
Source date: 2026-05-14
VIX
17.26 points
-0.61 points
Source date: 2026-05-14
Brent Crude
$106.59/bbl
+0.82%
Source date: 2026-05-14
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-05-14
EU Gas Storage
36.00%
+0.10 pp
Source date: 2026-05-14
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran Strikes Saudi: Aramco Refinery Hit In Aerial Strike; Dubai In Crosshairs Of West Asia War (srgMwTekhR) - Fathom Journal | 5 | 29.5% | Saudi Aramco & Saudi Oil |
| Berkshire Hathaway's Power Bet is Starting to Look Riskier | 5 | 4.7% | OilPrice.com |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Low risk environment maintained despite geopolitical tensions.
- Contagion Status: Regional contagion contained; Middle East conflict risks remain localized but with potential for wider energy market impact.
- Risk Indices:
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 17 (+3) – moderate uptick driven by Middle East conflict alerts.
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account (Locked — free account) – significant drop indicating fewer new event triggers outside Middle East.
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account – elevated, reflecting ongoing conflict and supply disruption risks.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 17
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global: Elevated risk in Middle East is exerting upward pressure on global energy prices (Brent +0.82%, TTF +2.72%).
- Europe: Ukraine strikes and drone attacks maintain localized risk but no new escalations; EU gas storage stable at 36%.
- Asia: Taiwan energy grid concerns linked to Hormuz crisis highlight indirect spillover risk from Middle East to Asian energy security.
- Americas: Fuel crisis in Cuba and rising US import costs indicate supply chain vulnerabilities but limited contagion to global risk indices.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €47.90/MWh | +2.72% |
| VIX | 17.26 points | -0.61 points |
| Brent Crude | $106.59/bbl | +0.82% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 36.00% | +0.10 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: Brent crude price increase modest relative to elevated Middle East risk signals, indicating partial market discounting of conflict escalation risk.
- Gas Markets: TTF gas price rise is more pronounced than risk index changes, suggesting market sensitivity to supply disruptions exceeds measured risk event frequency.
- Volatility Index (VIX): Declining VIX contrasts with rising energy risk, highlighting divergence between equity market volatility and energy geopolitical risk perception.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite a low overall risk regime, the Middle East remains a critical flashpoint with recent attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure and shipping raising the risk of supply disruptions. Brent crude prices have responded moderately, indicating market caution but not panic. European gas markets remain sensitive to geopolitical developments, with TTF gas prices reflecting heightened supply risk amid stable storage. The divergence between equity volatility and energy risk suggests current market complacency, which could reverse if conflict escalates. Traders should monitor Middle East developments closely, as a shift to medium or high-risk regimes would materially impact energy prices and cross-asset correlations. Hedging strategies and scenario planning are advised to manage potential volatility spikes and supply shocks.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +0.82% between recorded quotes; TTF +2.72% between recorded quotes; GERI 14 → 17. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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