GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
14 / 100
LOW1 day -3 · 7 day -3
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
US hopes to: GERI 14 | Energy Risk May 14 — May 14, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 14 (LOW) on 2026-05-13. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 14; 1-day change: -3.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-05-13.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€46.63/MWh
+0.26%
Source date: 2026-05-13
VIX
17.87 points
-0.12 points
Source date: 2026-05-13
Brent Crude
$105.72/bbl
-1.83%
Source date: 2026-05-13
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-05-13
EU Gas Storage
35.90%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-05-13
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| US hopes to convince China to play more active role to settle situation with Iran — Rubio | 5 | 4.5% | TASS World News |
| Funeral held for two Lebanese paramedics killed in Israeli attack | 5 | 1.8% | Al Jazeera News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk environment with mixed signals; geopolitical tensions persist but market volatility slightly recedes.
- Contagion Status: Moderate contagion risk from Middle East conflicts spreading to global energy markets and supply chains.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 14
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global Energy Markets: Hormuz Strait disruptions and Iran’s case-by-case passage policy elevate global oil supply risk, pressuring Brent crude and shipping.
- Asia → Clean Energy Surge: Iran conflict accelerates China’s clean energy push, influencing regional energy transition dynamics ahead of US-China talks.
- Europe → Renewable Energy Risk: Middle East war threatens European renewable rollout, potentially delaying decarbonization targets.
- Russia & US → Conflict Escalation Risks: US-China diplomatic efforts and Cuban warnings highlight potential for broader conflict spillover affecting energy security.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €46.63/MWh | +0.26% |
| VIX | 17.87 points | -0.12 points |
| Brent Crude | $105.72/bbl | -1.83% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 35.90% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Brent Pricing: Elevated EERI (Locked — free account) contrasts with Brent’s price drop (Locked — free account), indicating market pricing in temporary physical oil premium collapse (per StanChart), possibly underestimating sustained geopolitical risk.
- Gas Market Stability vs Risk Alerts: TTF gas and EU storage show resilience despite Middle East tensions, suggesting market confidence in supply buffers or demand softness.
- Volatility Index vs Risk Indices: VIX marginally down despite rising event risk, signaling investor complacency or delayed risk repricing.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The current energy risk environment reflects a complex interplay between geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and market dynamics. While the overall risk tone is stabilizing, the sharp rise in energy event risk (EERI Locked — free account) underscores persistent vulnerabilities, especially related to the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s strategic decisions. Brent crude’s price decline amid rising event risk suggests market skepticism about the durability of physical oil premiums, but this may underestimate the risk of supply shocks if disruptions persist. The resilience in European gas markets and storage provides a buffer, but the threat to renewable energy rollout in Europe could have longer-term implications for energy transition strategies. Traders should prepare for potential regime shifts driven by diplomatic outcomes and conflict escalation, with a watchful eye on shipping and geopolitical developments.
Key takeaway: Market pricing currently discounts some geopolitical risks; a cautious stance with scenario-based hedging is advised.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -1.83% between recorded quotes; TTF +0.26% between recorded quotes; GERI 17 → 14. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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