GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
16 / 100
LOW1 day -1 · 7 day -1
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Iran's attack on: GERI 16 | Energy Risk May 16 — May 16, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 16 (LOW) on 2026-05-15. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 16; 1-day change: -1.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-05-15.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€49.70/MWh
+3.76%
Source date: 2026-05-15
VIX
18.43 points
+1.17 points
Source date: 2026-05-15
Brent Crude
$109.47/bbl
+2.77%
Source date: 2026-05-15
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-05-15
EU Gas Storage
36.10%
+0.10 pp
Source date: 2026-05-15
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran's attack on Saudi Arabia's giant Jubail petrochem complex adds to global supply risk - MSN | 5 | 10.6% | Saudi Aramco & Saudi Oil |
| Natural Gas Traders Begin Pricing in Summer Risk | 5 | 6.4% | Natural Gas Intelligence |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone despite ongoing Middle East conflict and supply disruptions.
- Contagion Status: Regional tensions in Middle East continue to propagate risk into global energy markets, notably impacting Europe and North America.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 16
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global: Iran’s attack on Jubail petrochemical complex and Qatar LNG shutdown maintain elevated supply risk, driving Brent crude +2.77%.
- Middle East → Europe: Elevated risk from potential pipeline disruptions and geopolitical tensions, though EU gas storage steady at 36.1%.
- Middle East → North America: Natural gas traders price in summer supply risk, TTF gas +3.76%, indicating spillover of Middle East conflict into North American gas markets.
- Europe → Global: Russian conflict escalation risk persists but slightly reduced, reflected in EERI decline.
- South America: Vaca Muerta emerging as supply alternative mitigates some Middle East risk spillover.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €49.70/MWh | +3.76% |
| VIX | 18.43 points | +1.17 points |
| Brent Crude | $109.47/bbl | +2.77% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 36.10% | +0.10 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: Despite high conflict alerts, GERI and EERI indices declined slightly, indicating markets may be partially pricing in risk or anticipating stabilization.
- Energy Prices: Brent and TTF gas prices surged +2.77% and +3.76%, respectively, outpacing risk index moves, suggesting price sensitivity to supply disruptions remains elevated.
- Storage vs Price: EU gas storage stable but low at 36.1%, supporting price strength despite risk index softness.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The energy risk environment remains fragile but shows tentative signs of stabilization. Despite a slight decline in risk indices (GERI Locked — free account, EERI Locked — free account), the underlying supply disruptions—highlighted by Iran’s attack on Jubail and Qatar LNG shutdown—continue to underpin elevated energy prices (Brent Locked — free account, TTF Locked — free account). Market pricing currently reflects a cautious balance between conflict risk and adaptive supply responses, including emerging alternatives such as Vaca Muerta. The probability of escalation remains material (~Locked — free account), necessitating vigilant monitoring of Middle East geopolitical developments and storage trends. Traders should prepare for volatility spikes and price jumps in the event of renewed conflict while considering hedged positions in energy assets.
Informational
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +2.70% between recorded quotes; TTF +3.76% between recorded quotes; GERI 17 → 16. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
Create a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios.
| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
Get tomorrow’s risk signals before the market moves.
Open a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios. Real-time features depend on product subscription.
Create free accountDaily Intelligence Report is an account-managed paid product.