GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
53 / 100
ELEVATED1 day 3 · 7 day 17
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
EU Winter Gas: GERI 53 | Energy Risk Mar 2 — March 02, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 53 (ELEVATED) on 2026-03-01. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 53; 1-day change: 3.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-03-01.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€31.51/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-02-27
VIX
19.86 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-02-27
Brent Crude
$78.23/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-02-27
EUR/USD
1.1817 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-02-27
EU Gas Storage
30.10%
+0.10 pp
Source date: 2026-03-01
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| EU Winter Gas Supply Risk: CRITICAL - Storage at 30.0% | 5 | 95.0% | Source not recorded |
| Starmer lets Trump use UK bases to strike Iran’s missile depots | 5 | 5.7% | Politico Europe |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. Executive risk snapshot
## EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
Global risk tone remains elevated and is rising, driven primarily by critical EU winter gas supply concerns and escalating geopolitical tensions following UK authorization of US strikes on Iranian missile sites. The EU gas storage is critically low at 30%, heightening supply security fears amid winter demand. Brent crude surged nearly 8%, reflecting risk premiums linked to Middle East instability and energy market stress. Elevated volatility (VIX +1.23) underscores growing market nervousness.
## BASIC ASSET MOVES
- Brent Crude: $78.23 (+7.93%)
- TTF Gas: €31.51 (+0.00%)
- VIX: 19.86 (+1.23)
- EUR/USD: 1.1817 (+0.17%)
- EU Gas Storage: 30.1% (+0.10%)
## GERI DIRECTION
GERI at 53, up +3 points, signaling a moderate upward risk momentum. This reflects increasing market sensitivity to energy supply disruptions and geopolitical conflict escalation.
## SHORT WATCHLIST
- Monitor EU gas storage trends closely; any further declines below 30% could trigger sharp TTF gas price spikes.
- Watch for developments in UK-US-Iran military actions; escalation could further elevate Brent crude and volatility indices.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +7.93% between recorded quotes; TTF +0.00% between recorded quotes; GERI 50 → 53. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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