GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
69 / 100
SEVERE1 day 16 · 7 day 31
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Surging Oil Prices: GERI 69 | Energy Risk Mar 3 — March 03, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 69 (SEVERE) on 2026-03-02. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 69; 1-day change: 16.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-03-02.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€43.23/MWh
+37.19%
Source date: 2026-03-02
VIX
21.44 points
+1.58 points
Source date: 2026-03-02
Brent Crude
$78.06/bbl
-0.32%
Source date: 2026-03-02
EUR/USD
1.1690 USD/EUR
-1.08%
Source date: 2026-03-02
EU Gas Storage
29.90%
-0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-03-02
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Surging Oil Prices Could Derail Pakistan’s Fragile Economic Recovery | 5 | 42.4% | OilPrice.com |
| Jebel Ali Port Resumes Operations as Most Regional Ports Remain Operational | 5 | 4.0% | Maritime Executive |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. Executive risk snapshot
## EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
Global risk sentiment remains elevated and rising, driven primarily by geopolitical tensions impacting energy markets and regional economic vulnerabilities. Key drivers include surging oil prices threatening Pakistan’s economic recovery and ongoing war-related disruptions in Middle Eastern logistics hubs. The sharp increase in European gas prices further underscores supply concerns amid geopolitical instability. Market participants should brace for continued volatility as energy security risks intensify.
## BASIC ASSET MOVES
- Brent Crude: $78.06 (-0.32%)
- TTF Gas: €43.23 (+37.19%)
- VIX: 21.44 (+1.58)
- EUR/USD: 1.169 (-1.08%)
- EU Gas Storage: 29.9% (-0.20)
## GERI DIRECTION
Current GERI: 69 (+16)
The sharp rise in the Global Energy Risk Index signals a significant escalation in energy market risk, reflecting heightened geopolitical and supply chain pressures.
## SHORT WATCHLIST
- Monitor developments in Pakistan’s economic stability as oil price pressures may trigger broader regional financial stress.
- Track Middle East port operations for potential disruptions that could further constrain global energy logistics.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -0.22% between recorded quotes; TTF +37.19% between recorded quotes; GERI 53 → 69. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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