GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
6 / 100
LOW1 day -5 · 7 day -6
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Hormuz: GERI 6 | Energy Risk Oct 11 — October 11, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 6 (LOW) on 2026-10-10. The brief covers 17 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 6; 1-day change: -5.
- 17 alerts considered from 2026-10-10.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€80.25/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-10-09
VIX
14.84 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-10-09
Brent Crude
$104.54/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-10-09
EUR/USD
1.1206 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-10-09
EU Gas Storage
73.50%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-10-10
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tanker attacks in Strait of Hormuz surge to wartime high as Iran tries to choke off oil exports - CNBC | 5 | 12.3% | IMO Maritime Security |
| Emergency Oil Releases Risk Draining the World’s Last Supply Cushion | 5 | 10.6% | OilPrice.com |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone despite elevated geopolitical tensions.
- Contagion Status: Localized risk pockets in Middle East and Europe; no broad contagion detected.
- Key Drivers: Wartime tanker attacks in Strait of Hormuz, emergency oil releases, and fuel shortages in Malawi maintain pressure on supply; ongoing Middle East conflicts and Ukraine energy infrastructure threats sustain geopolitical risk.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 6
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Observation unavailable for this date
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East to Europe: High spillover via oil supply routes; tanker attacks in Strait of Hormuz elevate risk premium on Brent crude and European oil imports.
- Europe to Global: Fuel shortages in Malawi and Ukraine infrastructure attacks increase risk perception globally but limited contagion due to emergency releases and storage buffers.
- Russia to Europe: Political rhetoric on Ukraine and strikes on refineries sustain risk but impact contained by EU gas storage at 73.5% capacity.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €80.25/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 14.84 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $104.54/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1206 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 73.50% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Despite 5/5 alerts on severe geopolitical and supply disruptions, Brent crude and TTF gas prices are flat, indicating market confidence in emergency oil releases and storage buffers.
- VIX decline contrasts with elevated EERI, suggesting equity markets discount sustained European energy risk.
- EUR/USD stable, reflecting balanced risk perception between geopolitical tensions and economic fundamentals.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite a series of severe geopolitical and supply disruption alerts, market pricing remains largely stable, reflecting confidence in emergency oil releases and robust European gas storage. However, the elevated Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission and persistent supply issues in Africa and Ukraine maintain a significant risk premium, particularly for Brent crude and European energy markets. The risk regime is currently stabilizing, but transition probabilities indicate a meaningful chance of escalation if tanker attacks or regional conflicts intensify. Traders should monitor key indicators in the Strait of Hormuz, EU storage levels, and Ukraine infrastructure security to anticipate shifts in risk and adjust energy exposure accordingly.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +0.00% between recorded quotes; TTF +0.00% between recorded quotes; GERI 11 → 6. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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