GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
11 / 100
LOW1 day -3 · 7 day 0
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Oil Advances Amid: GERI 11 | Energy Risk Oct 10 — October 10, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 11 (LOW) on 2026-10-09. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 11; 1-day change: -3.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-10-09.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€80.25/MWh
+3.80%
Source date: 2026-10-09
VIX
14.84 points
-0.57 points
Source date: 2026-10-09
Brent Crude
$104.54/bbl
+0.82%
Source date: 2026-10-09
EUR/USD
1.1206 USD/EUR
+0.04%
Source date: 2026-10-09
EU Gas Storage
73.30%
+0.00 pp
Source date: 2026-10-09
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil Advances Amid War and Hurricane Risks | 5 | 9.6% | Rigzone |
| Tanker attacks in Strait of Hormuz surge to wartime high as Iran tries to choke off oil exports - CNBC | 5 | 21.5% | IMO Maritime Security |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing with elevated geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and Europe.
- Contagion Status: Moderate contagion risk due to war-related disruptions and regional spillovers; global oil supply remains vulnerable.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 11
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Observation unavailable for this date
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Europe: Rising tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and vessel strikes off UAE coast increase risk transmission to European energy markets, pressuring supply routes.
- South America → Global: Tsunami warnings post-earthquake raise localized disruption risks, with limited but non-negligible impact on regional energy infrastructure.
- Europe → Global: Border tensions on NATO’s eastern flank add to regional instability, potentially affecting energy transit corridors and increasing risk premium globally.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €80.25/MWh | +3.80% |
| VIX | 14.84 points | -0.57 points |
| Brent Crude | $104.54/bbl | +0.82% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1206 USD/EUR | +0.04% |
| EU Gas Storage | 73.30% | +0.00 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Market prices reflect elevated risk (Brent +0.82%, TTF +3.8%), consistent with high-alert war signals (all 5/5 severity).
- VIX decline (-0.57%) suggests equity markets are less reactive or anticipating risk containment, highlighting a divergence between energy and equity risk pricing.
- EUR/USD stable, indicating limited FX market concern despite geopolitical stress.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Energy markets remain on edge amid persistent war risk in the Middle East, with tanker attacks at wartime highs and Iran signaling uncompromising retaliatory posture. This maintains upward pressure on Brent crude (Locked — free account) and European gas (TTF Locked — free account), reflecting supply disruption fears. Despite a slight easing in geopolitical energy risk index (GERI Locked — free account), economic uncertainty (EERI Locked — free account) grows, driven by compounding regional conflicts and natural disaster threats. The divergence between rising energy prices and subdued equity volatility suggests selective risk pricing, with energy assets pricing in risk more aggressively. The probability of escalation remains material, warranting close monitoring of maritime security and diplomatic signals. EU gas storage stability offers some short-term relief but does not offset price sensitivity to geopolitical shocks. Traders should weigh energy exposure carefully, favoring upstream and LNG-linked assets while hedging against potential supply disruptions.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +1.00% between recorded quotes; TTF +3.80% between recorded quotes; GERI 14 → 11. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
Create a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios.
| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
Get tomorrow’s risk signals before the market moves.
Open a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios. Real-time features depend on product subscription.
Create free accountDaily Intelligence Report is an account-managed paid product.