GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
8 / 100
LOW1 day 0 · 7 day -3
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Hurricane Isaias: Category: GERI 8 | Energy Risk Oct 8 — October 08, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 8 (LOW) on 2026-10-07. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 8; 1-day change: 0.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-10-07.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€79.34/MWh
+3.85%
Source date: 2026-10-07
VIX
15.08 points
+0.07 points
Source date: 2026-10-07
Brent Crude
$101.49/bbl
-0.28%
Source date: 2026-10-07
EUR/USD
1.1254 USD/EUR
+0.33%
Source date: 2026-10-07
EU Gas Storage
73.00%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-10-07
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricane Isaias: Category 3 Threat to Gulf & Supply Chain | 5 | 10.2% | FreightWaves |
| Rebounding oil exports through Strait of Hormuz are vulnerable to stepped-up Iranian tanker attacks | 5 | 36.7% | Hellenic Shipping News — Shipping |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Risk Tone: Low, stable from prior day despite multiple high-alert geopolitical events.
- Regime Status: No active regime classification; market remains in neutral risk mode.
- Contagion Status: Elevated geopolitical tensions in Middle East and Europe show potential contagion channels but not yet triggering broad market stress.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 8
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Observation unavailable for this date
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East to Global: Tanker attacks and missile strikes increase risk spillover to global oil markets, sustaining price floor and supply uncertainty.
- Europe: Near miss on US diesel export ban and diesel crunch heighten political risk, potentially disrupting European energy trade flows.
- Russia: Attacks on Saudi airports and coalition forces near Bab el-Mandeb add to regional instability with possible secondary effects on global energy security.
- Global: AI misinformation risks flagged by FCC member introduce a novel vector for market sentiment contagion, though currently low impact.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €79.34/MWh | +3.85% |
| VIX | 15.08 points | +0.07 points |
| Brent Crude | $101.49/bbl | -0.28% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1254 USD/EUR | +0.33% |
| EU Gas Storage | 73.00% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: Elevated geopolitical alerts contrast with muted Brent price response (-0.28%), indicating market confidence in supply buffers.
- TTF Gas price surge (+3.85%) diverges from low overall risk tone, reflecting localized European energy stress rather than global risk escalation.
- VIX remains subdued, highlighting limited broader market fear despite geopolitical flashpoints.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite multiple high-severity geopolitical alerts, global energy markets remain in a low-risk regime supported by depleted stock buffers and stable storage levels. The slight increase in EERI reflects ongoing Middle East conflict risks, particularly tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and missile strikes near Bab el-Mandeb, which sustain a price floor for oil but have not triggered broad market volatility. European energy markets show localized stress, notably a diesel crunch and export ban fears, driving a notable rise in TTF gas prices (Locked — free account) and strengthening EUR/USD (Locked — free account). However, the VIX remains subdued, indicating limited contagion to broader financial markets. The probability of a regime shift to elevated risk is moderate (~Locked — free account), hinging on escalation in Middle East hostilities or formalization of US diesel export restrictions. Traders should monitor tanker attack frequency and European diesel inventories closely, maintaining selective hedges in oil and European gas while remaining agile to evolving geopolitical developments.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -0.28% between recorded quotes; TTF +3.85% between recorded quotes; GERI 8 → 8. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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