GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
8 / 100
LOW1 day -8 · 7 day -4
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Houthis, Saudi-led forces: GERI 8 | Energy Risk Oct 7 — October 07, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 8 (LOW) on 2026-10-06. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 8; 1-day change: -8.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-10-06.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€76.40/MWh
+3.66%
Source date: 2026-10-06
VIX
15.01 points
-0.51 points
Source date: 2026-10-06
Brent Crude
$101.78/bbl
+1.21%
Source date: 2026-10-06
EUR/USD
1.1217 USD/EUR
-0.33%
Source date: 2026-10-06
EU Gas Storage
72.80%
+0.10 pp
Source date: 2026-10-06
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houthis, Saudi-led forces claim victories as Yemen fighting rages on | 5 | 5.1% | Al Jazeera News |
| ENGINE: East of Suez Fuel Availability Outlook | 5 | 7.3% | Hellenic Shipping News — Shipping |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone despite ongoing Middle East conflict and energy market volatility.
- Contagion Status: Regional tensions in Middle East (Yemen, Bab el-Mandeb) continue to propagate risk into global energy markets, notably Europe and Asia. No systemic contagion to financial markets observed (VIX down).
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 8
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Observation unavailable for this date
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Europe: Missile strikes near Bab el-Mandeb and Iran’s export route shifts increase geopolitical risk premium in European gas markets, pushing TTF up 3.66%.
- Middle East → Asia: Fuel availability outlook deteriorates amid conflict, impacting East of Suez supply chains.
- Middle East → Global: Trucking capacity crisis exacerbates logistical bottlenecks, increasing operational risk beyond regional confines.
- Europe → Global: G7 oil release dampens Brent crude price rise; however, tanker threats sustain elevated energy price volatility.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €76.40/MWh | +3.66% |
| VIX | 15.01 points | -0.51 points |
| Brent Crude | $101.78/bbl | +1.21% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1217 USD/EUR | -0.33% |
| EU Gas Storage | 72.80% | +0.10 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- EERI up (Locked — free account) indicates rising event risk, but VIX down (Locked — free account) suggests limited equity market fear, reflecting decoupling between geopolitical risk and financial volatility.
- Brent crude’s moderate rise (+1.21%) versus sharp TTF gas spike (+3.66%) highlights regional divergence in energy risk pricing, with gas markets more sensitive to Middle East disruptions.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The energy risk environment remains complex with stabilizing headline risk but elevated event-driven volatility, especially in gas markets. The Middle East conflict continues to exert asymmetric pressure on energy supply chains and pricing, particularly through missile threats and export route uncertainties. The G7’s oil release has capped crude price gains but has not alleviated regional gas market tightness. Logistical constraints from trucking capacity issues add a layer of operational risk with potential for spillover into industrial sectors. Market participants should prepare for episodic price spikes in gas and oil, while monitoring geopolitical developments closely for regime shifts. The decoupling of equity volatility from geopolitical risk suggests selective sector rotation opportunities rather than broad risk-off moves.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: Baseline · Probability: 70% illustrative weight, not a calibrated forecast
Observed outcome: BRENT +1.31% between recorded quotes; TTF +3.66% between recorded quotes; GERI 16 → 8. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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