GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
26 / 100
MODERATE1 day 13 · 7 day 8
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
CSTO seeks to: GERI 26 | Energy Risk Sep 15 — September 15, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 26 (MODERATE) on 2026-09-14. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 26; 1-day change: 13.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-09-14.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€82.00/MWh
-0.62%
Source date: 2026-09-14
VIX
17.10 points
+1.26 points
Source date: 2026-09-14
Brent Crude
$106.44/bbl
-1.41%
Source date: 2026-09-14
EUR/USD
1.1594 USD/EUR
-0.07%
Source date: 2026-09-14
EU Gas Storage
68.30%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-09-14
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSTO seeks to draw extensively on lessons of modern warfare — secretary general | 5 | 1.6% | TASS World News |
| Stocks start week in negative territory as Saudi oil pipeline goes down and AI warnings persist - modernghana.com | 5 | 7.4% | Saudi Aramco & Saudi Oil |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Risk Tone: Low
- Regime: Transitional, with heightened geopolitical tensions but contained market volatility
- Contagion Status: Moderate cross-regional risk transmission, primarily from Middle East conflict and European energy infrastructure strikes
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 26
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Observation unavailable for this date
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global: Saudi pipeline outage and Yemeni conflict increase supply disruption risk, pushing Brent crude volatility and regional risk indices higher.
- Russia → Europe: CSTO statements and ongoing strikes on energy infrastructure sustain risk spillover into European gas markets, reflected in 5% gas price spike and depleted reserves warnings.
- Asia → Global: China's potential lowering of crude stockholding requirements signals tightening supply, contributing to upward pressure on Asia crude values (Oman crude gains).
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €82.00/MWh | -0.62% |
| VIX | 17.10 points | +1.26 points |
| Brent Crude | $106.44/bbl | -1.41% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1594 USD/EUR | -0.07% |
| EU Gas Storage | 68.30% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- GERI vs Brent Crude: GERI surged +13 points while Brent fell 1.41%, indicating a divergence where risk perception outpaces market pricing, likely due to short-term demand concerns and possible speculative positioning.
- EERI vs Gas Prices: EERI marginally down (Locked — free account) while European gas spiked Locked — free account, showing market pricing may be overreacting to supply concerns relative to economic risk fundamentals.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Geopolitical tensions remain the primary driver of energy risk, with Middle East pipeline disruptions and European energy infrastructure strikes creating a complex risk environment. Despite a low overall risk tone, the sharp rise in GERI (+13) signals market participants are increasingly pricing in supply-side uncertainties. The divergence between risk indices and Brent crude price suggests underlying demand concerns or speculative adjustments are tempering price reactions. European gas markets remain sensitive to storage levels and strike developments, with a 5% gas price spike highlighting vulnerability. The transition probability to a medium risk regime is significant, emphasizing the need for close monitoring of conflict escalation and infrastructure repair progress. Portfolio strategies should balance defensive positioning with selective exposure to LNG and storage sectors benefiting from tightening supply dynamics.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -1.37% between recorded quotes; TTF -0.62% between recorded quotes; GERI 13 → 26. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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