GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
13 / 100
LOW1 day -6 · 7 day -4
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
StanChart Warns Oil: GERI 13 | Energy Risk Sep 14 — September 14, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 13 (LOW) on 2026-09-13. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 13; 1-day change: -6.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-09-13.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€82.51/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-09-11
VIX
15.84 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-09-11
Brent Crude
$107.92/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-09-11
EUR/USD
1.1602 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-09-11
EU Gas Storage
68.00%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-09-13
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| StanChart Warns Oil Is Now Built for Sharper, More Frequent Spikes | 5 | 30.6% | OilPrice.com |
| Could AI really kill us within a decade? | 5 | 1.9% | Al Jazeera News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone despite elevated geopolitical tensions.
- Contagion Status: Moderate cross-regional risk transmission, primarily from Middle East to Europe energy markets.
- Summary: Geopolitical war-related risks remain acute, particularly in Middle East and Europe, but overall market volatility (VIX) has slightly eased, suggesting partial market digestion of shocks.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 13
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Observation unavailable for this date
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Europe: Elevated Middle East oil supply disruptions are directly impacting European diesel availability, exacerbated by Ukraine-Russia conflict strikes.
- Europe → Global: European strike and war events are amplifying global energy price volatility, particularly in oil and gas markets.
- Russia/Korea Region: North Korean missile drills add geopolitical uncertainty, but limited direct energy market impact currently.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD (Beta Estimates)
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €82.51/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 15.84 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $107.92/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1602 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 68.00% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing Gap:
- Brent crude price (Locked — free account) and TTF gas (Locked — free account) gains exceed the modest increase in EERI (Locked — free account), suggesting market prices are front-running risk events, possibly pricing in sharper future spikes as warned by StanChart.
- VIX decline (-2%) contrasts with elevated war-related alerts, indicating potential complacency in equity volatility markets.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
EnergyRiskIQ analysts note that despite a stabilizing risk tone, the market remains vulnerable to sharp energy price spikes due to compounded geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Europe. The Saudi pipeline outage alone threatens 4% of global oil supply, a critical factor driving Brent crude gains and elevated gas prices in Europe. Concurrently, Ukraine strikes on Russian fuel infrastructure exacerbate diesel shortages, prompting political pressure to halt attacks, which adds uncertainty to conflict dynamics and energy supply stability. Market pricing currently appears to anticipate sharper, more frequent price spikes as highlighted by StanChart, while equity volatility is somewhat subdued, suggesting a potential underpricing of tail risks. Traders should prioritize monitoring Middle East supply developments and European conflict escalation to adjust hedging and portfolio risk exposures accordingly.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +3.45% between recorded quotes; TTF +4.05% between recorded quotes; GERI 19 → 13. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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