GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
17 / 100
LOW1 day -3 · 7 day 2
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Shipowners face growing: GERI 17 | Energy Risk Sep 12 — September 12, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 17 (LOW) on 2026-09-11. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 17; 1-day change: -3.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-09-11.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€80.16/MWh
-2.77%
Source date: 2026-09-11
VIX
15.84 points
-2.00 points
Source date: 2026-09-11
Brent Crude
$104.32/bbl
-4.42%
Source date: 2026-09-11
EUR/USD
1.1602 USD/EUR
-0.27%
Source date: 2026-09-11
EU Gas Storage
67.60%
-0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-09-11
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shipowners face growing financial risk from delayed EUA transfers, says EmissionLink | 5 | 3.7% | Hellenic Shipping News — Shipping |
| US legislators push AI safety laws amid human extinction warnings | 5 | 1.9% | Al Jazeera News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone with declining headline indices.
- Contagion Status: Moderate cross-regional tension persists, primarily from Middle East conflict spillovers into European energy markets. No immediate regime shift detected.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 17
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Observation unavailable for this date
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Europe: Elevated geopolitical tensions (pipeline attacks, Bab el-Mandeb Strait closure threat) sustain European gas price premiums and risk premiums despite recent price pullbacks.
- Europe → Global: European natural gas and oil market stress transmits moderate risk to global oil markets, contributing to the largest weekly oil gain since July.
- Global → Europe: US legislative focus on AI safety and global conflict narratives add indirect risk but currently have limited direct energy market impact.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €80.16/MWh | -2.77% |
| VIX | 15.84 points | -2.00 points |
| Brent Crude | $104.32/bbl | -4.42% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1602 USD/EUR | -0.27% |
| EU Gas Storage | 67.60% | -0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: Despite high-level geopolitical alerts (5/5 severity), Brent and TTF gas prices corrected downward, indicating a short-term market pullback or profit-taking after recent rallies. This divergence suggests market participants are pricing in some risk mitigation or expect supply disruptions to be contained in near term.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The current stabilizing risk regime masks underlying vulnerabilities in Middle East energy supply chains, notably Saudi oil output and strategic chokepoints such as the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. While European gas prices paused their rally, the fifth consecutive weekly gain underscores persistent risk premiums. The recent correction in Brent crude suggests profit-taking or short-term risk-off positioning, but elevated geopolitical alerts warrant close monitoring. Traders should weigh the 20-30% probability of supply disruptions against the 35-45% chance of continued stabilization. Diversification across oil and gas exposures, with hedges on supply disruption scenarios, is prudent. Storage levels provide a buffer but are insufficient to fully offset potential shocks from escalating Middle East tensions.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: Contained Conflict · Probability: 60% illustrative weight, not a calibrated forecast
Observed outcome: BRENT -2.93% between recorded quotes; TTF -2.77% between recorded quotes; GERI 20 → 17. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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