GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
20 / 100
LOW1 day 1 · 7 day 7
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Houthis seize key: GERI 20 | Energy Risk Sep 11 — September 11, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 20 (LOW) on 2026-09-10. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 20; 1-day change: 1.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-09-10.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€82.44/MWh
+3.76%
Source date: 2026-09-10
VIX
17.84 points
+1.38 points
Source date: 2026-09-10
Brent Crude
$107.47/bbl
+5.75%
Source date: 2026-09-10
EUR/USD
1.1634 USD/EUR
+0.06%
Source date: 2026-09-10
EU Gas Storage
67.80%
+0.50 pp
Source date: 2026-09-10
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houthis seize key Yemen port threatening Saudi oil routes - Ticker News | 5 | 18.7% | Saudi Aramco & Saudi Oil |
| Oil surges above $100 a barrel as US and Iran launch new attacks, while gasoline prices also jump - WFMZ.com | 5 | 8.1% | Saudi Aramco & Saudi Oil |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Current Regime: Low risk environment sustained despite geopolitical flare-ups.
- Contagion Status: Moderate contagion risk, primarily from Middle East conflict escalation impacting global energy markets.
- Risk Tone: Low, but upward pressure on energy prices and regional tensions warrants close monitoring.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 20
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Observation unavailable for this date
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global Energy Markets: Houthis’ control of strategic Red Sea port threatens Saudi oil exports, triggering Brent crude spike (+5.75%). This elevates global supply risk perception.
- Black Sea → European Security & Energy: Russian aggression and USV attacks increase regional instability, pressuring European energy security and elevating TTF gas prices (+3.76%).
- Europe → FX & Volatility: Minor spillover into EUR/USD (+0.06%) and VIX (+1.38%), reflecting cautious risk sentiment but no systemic shock.
- Cross-Regional Linkage: Middle East conflict drives primary energy price shocks; Black Sea tensions amplify European energy risk, creating a layered risk transmission pattern.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €82.44/MWh | +3.76% |
| VIX | 17.84 points | +1.38 points |
| Brent Crude | $107.47/bbl | +5.75% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1634 USD/EUR | +0.06% |
| EU Gas Storage | 67.80% | +0.50 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: Brent crude price surge (+5.75%) outpaces GERI increase (+5%), indicating market is pricing in a higher risk premium than current measured geopolitical risk.
- TTF Gas price increase (Locked — free account) aligns with moderate EERI rise (Locked — free account), showing consistency in European energy risk pricing.
- VIX and EUR/USD moves are subdued, suggesting broader market risk appetite remains intact despite energy market stress.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The recent surge in Brent crude above $107 and TTF gas prices reflects heightened geopolitical tensions primarily centered on the Middle East and Black Sea regions. The seizure of Yemen’s strategic port by Houthis threatens critical Saudi
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +5.80% between recorded quotes; TTF +3.76% between recorded quotes; GERI 19 → 20. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
Create a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios.
| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
Get tomorrow’s risk signals before the market moves.
Open a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios. Real-time features depend on product subscription.
Create free accountDaily Intelligence Report is an account-managed paid product.