GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
6 / 100
LOW1 day -3 · 7 day -8
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Yemen launches fresh: GERI 6 | Energy Risk Aug 28 — August 28, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 6 (LOW) on 2026-08-27. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 6; 1-day change: -3.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-08-27.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€69.44/MWh
+4.34%
Source date: 2026-08-27
VIX
14.51 points
-0.70 points
Source date: 2026-08-27
Brent Crude
$89.15/bbl
+2.24%
Source date: 2026-08-27
EUR/USD
1.1655 USD/EUR
-0.17%
Source date: 2026-08-27
EU Gas Storage
64.10%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-08-27
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yemen launches fresh missile strikes on Saudi-backed mercenaries, down Saudi spy drone - PressTV | 5 | 14.0% | Saudi Aramco & Saudi Oil |
| Russia Focuses Strikes on Ukrainian Ports, Industrial Sites, Distribution Facilities | 5 | 7.4% | MarineLink / Maritime Reporter |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
Regime: Stabilizing, with mixed signals from geopolitical and energy markets.
Contagion Status: Elevated cross-regional tension but contained; risk transmission primarily from Middle East and Eastern Europe to global energy prices.
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2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 6
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global Energy Markets: Yemen’s missile strikes and Saudi drone losses keep regional risk premium elevated, pushing Brent +2.24%.
- Europe → Energy & Security: Russian strikes on Ukrainian ports and Poland’s nuclear stance increase European risk, reflected in TTF gas +4.34%.
- Asia → Energy Demand: India’s energy cost surge and Turkey’s diesel imports from US/India signal demand-side pressure, feeding back into global oil and gas prices.
- US-Latin America → China: US geopolitical pressure risks shifting Latin American energy trade towards China, potentially realigning regional supply chains over medium term.
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4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €69.44/MWh | +4.34% |
| VIX | 14.51 points | -0.70 points |
| Brent Crude | $89.15/bbl | +2.24% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1655 USD/EUR | -0.17% |
| EU Gas Storage | 64.10% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Despite high EERI (Locked — free account), VIX declined, indicating market complacency or delayed risk pricing in equities.
- Brent and TTF gas prices are more aligned with risk signals, confirming energy markets are pricing in geopolitical and supply disruptions more aggressively than equity volatility.
- EUR/USD weakening aligns with energy risk but modestly priced.
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6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS & PORTFOLIO IMPLICATIONS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
EnergyRiskIQ Custom Algorithms identify a complex risk environment where geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe continue to exert upward pressure on global energy prices, particularly Brent crude and European gas. The divergence between equity volatility (VIX) and energy price risk suggests market complacency in financial markets, which could reverse if conflict escalates. The energy sector faces cost pressures that will likely transmit to power prices and industrial margins, especially in Europe and Asia. The stabilizing risk tone masks underlying vulnerabilities, with a significant probability of regime shift if hostilities intensify or supply chains are further disrupted. Traders should monitor missile activity, military targeting, and energy import flows closely to anticipate rapid changes in risk pricing.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +2.28% between recorded quotes; TTF +4.34% between recorded quotes; GERI 9 → 6. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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