GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
5 / 100
LOW1 day -1 · 7 day -7
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Russia is intensifying: GERI 5 | Energy Risk Aug 29 — August 29, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 5 (LOW) on 2026-08-28. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 5; 1-day change: -1.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-08-28.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€68.80/MWh
-0.92%
Source date: 2026-08-28
VIX
14.43 points
-0.08 points
Source date: 2026-08-28
Brent Crude
$88.29/bbl
-1.21%
Source date: 2026-08-28
EUR/USD
1.1587 USD/EUR
-0.58%
Source date: 2026-08-28
EU Gas Storage
64.40%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-08-28
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone with no explicit regime classification currently active.
- Contagion Status: Declining cross-regional contagion evident as EERI dropped sharply by Locked — free account points, indicating reduced systemic risk spillover. GERI decreased by Locked — free account point, signaling modest easing in global energy risk sentiment.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 5
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Europe: Despite continued Russian attacks on energy infrastructure, European risk perception eased, likely due to improved gas storage (+0.3%) and mild price declines in Brent (-1.21%) and TTF gas (-0.92%).
- Middle East: Persistent conflict in Gaza and warnings of ceasefire collapse maintain localized risk but have not escalated systemic contagion.
- South America: Flood-related supply disruptions in Nepal and potential Venezuela oil deal add supply uncertainty but limited contagion so far.
- Russia: Military operations and defense system deployment (S-400) sustain regional risk but with contained spillover.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €68.80/MWh | -0.92% |
| VIX | 14.43 points | -0.08 points |
| Brent Crude | $88.29/bbl | -1.21% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1587 USD/EUR | -0.58% |
| EU Gas Storage | 64.40% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signals vs Market Pricing:
- Market prices for Brent and TTF gas have declined modestly, consistent with lower EERI and GERI. No significant divergence detected.
- EUR/USD depreciation suggests some risk premium remains priced in currency markets despite lower risk indices.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
EnergyRiskIQ analysis indicates a cautiously stabilizing energy risk environment despite persistent geopolitical flashpoints. The significant drop in European risk indices reflects market confidence in buffer mechanisms such as rising gas storage and easing commodity prices. However, the underlying conflict dynamics in Ukraine and the Middle East, coupled with supply uncertainties from South America, maintain a non-negligible risk premium. Traders should balance exposure by prioritizing sectors benefiting from current easing (power, storage) while hedging against potential rapid escalations. Currency weakness in the euro signals residual geopolitical concerns that could impact cross-border energy trade flows. Close monitoring of multi-regional spillover indicators is advised to anticipate regime shifts.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -0.96% between recorded quotes; TTF -0.92% between recorded quotes; GERI 6 → 5. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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