GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
46 / 100
ELEVATED1 day 6 · 7 day 17
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Trump urges Netanyahu: GERI 46 | Energy Risk Jul 15 — July 15, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 46 (ELEVATED) on 2026-07-14. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 46; 1-day change: 6.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-07-14.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€54.61/MWh
+3.94%
Source date: 2026-07-14
VIX
16.50 points
-0.66 points
Source date: 2026-07-14
Brent Crude
$86.26/bbl
+1.49%
Source date: 2026-07-14
EUR/USD
1.1384 USD/EUR
-0.18%
Source date: 2026-07-14
EU Gas Storage
52.80%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-07-14
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump urges Netanyahu to withdraw Israeli forces from Syria, Lebanon — media | 5 | 4.4% | TASS World News |
| Global LNG Growth Threatened by Hormuz Shutdown Through 2027 | 5 | 7.3% | Natural Gas Intelligence |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Current Regime: Moderate risk environment with heightened geopolitical tensions centered on the Middle East and spillover into Russia and global supply chains.
- Contagion Status: Elevated contagion risk from Middle East conflict escalation to global LNG and oil markets, compounded by persistent Strait of Hormuz disruptions.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 46
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global LNG & Oil Markets:
- Hormuz Strait shutdown risk threatens 20-25% of global LNG supply routes, causing upward pressure on Brent (+1.49%) and TTF gas (+3.94%).
- Middle East → Russia:
- Black Sea ship attacks increase Russian energy export risk, adding to regional instability.
- Global → Local:
- Sudan’s hunger crisis signals humanitarian fallout with potential to destabilize regional energy logistics further.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €54.61/MWh | +3.94% |
| VIX | 16.50 points | -0.66 points |
| Brent Crude | $86.26/bbl | +1.49% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1384 USD/EUR | -0.18% |
| EU Gas Storage | 52.80% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Brent and TTF prices reflect risk premium consistent with GERI rise (+6), indicating market pricing is aligned with geopolitical risk.
- VIX decline suggests equity volatility is not fully pricing in energy risk, indicating potential underestimation of spillover to broader markets.
- EUR/USD slight depreciation aligns with risk-off flows but is muted, showing limited currency market stress.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The energy risk environment remains elevated and focused on Middle East geopolitical instability, particularly the Strait of Hormuz disruptions, which threaten a significant portion of global LNG and oil supply chains. Market pricing in Brent and TTF gas reflects these risks, while equity volatility remains subdued, suggesting a potential underpricing of broader market contagion. The probability of escalation to a high-risk regime is non-trivial, warranting close monitoring of military and diplomatic developments. Energy storage levels in Europe provide a partial cushion but are insufficient to fully offset prolonged supply shocks. Traders should consider positioning for increased energy price volatility and supply tightness, with contingency plans for rapid regime shifts.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +1.87% between recorded quotes; TTF +3.94% between recorded quotes; GERI 40 → 46. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
Create a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios.
| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
Get tomorrow’s risk signals before the market moves.
Open a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios. Real-time features depend on product subscription.
Create free accountDaily Intelligence Report is an account-managed paid product.