GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
38 / 100
MODERATE1 day -8 · 7 day 7
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
U.S. Strikes Iran: GERI 38 | Energy Risk Jul 16 — July 16, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 38 (MODERATE) on 2026-07-15. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 38; 1-day change: -8.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-07-15.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€54.71/MWh
+0.18%
Source date: 2026-07-15
VIX
15.67 points
-0.83 points
Source date: 2026-07-15
Brent Crude
$85.26/bbl
+0.14%
Source date: 2026-07-15
EUR/USD
1.1425 USD/EUR
+0.35%
Source date: 2026-07-15
EU Gas Storage
53.00%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-07-15
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Strikes Iran Again as Brent Slips Despite Escalating Conflict | 5 | 29.1% | OilPrice.com |
| Missile warnings during von der Leyen's visit to Kiev - Agenzia Nova | 5 | 1.6% | Ukraine Energy & Infrastructure |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Current Regime: Moderate risk environment with heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Europe.
- Contagion Status: Elevated cross-regional contagion risk due to simultaneous war-related alerts in Middle East and Europe, compounded by supply disruption threats in critical maritime chokepoints.
- Risk Tone: Despite significant conflict alerts, market volatility remains subdued (VIX down 0.83%), indicating a cautious but not panic-driven environment.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 38
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East to Europe: High spillover potential as Middle East maritime disruptions (Hormuz Strait threats) could exacerbate European energy supply chains, particularly LNG shipments.
- Europe to Global Markets: European conflict escalation (missile strikes, sanctions deadlock) increases risk premium on Brent and TTF gas, though price moves remain muted.
- Cross-Commodity: Energy supply risks in Middle East elevate Brent crude risk premium; European conflict heightens gas price sensitivity.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €54.71/MWh | +0.18% |
| VIX | 15.67 points | -0.83 points |
| Brent Crude | $85.26/bbl | +0.14% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1425 USD/EUR | +0.35% |
| EU Gas Storage | 53.00% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: Despite multiple 5/5 severity alerts in war and supply disruption categories, Brent and TTF gas prices show minimal upward response (<0.2%). This divergence suggests market skepticism about immediate supply impact or effective risk mitigation (e.g., strategic reserves, alternative routes).
- VIX Decline: Lower volatility amid rising geopolitical alerts indicates potential complacency or market absorption of risk as "priced in," warranting caution for sudden shifts.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The current moderate risk regime masks underlying elevated geopolitical tensions primarily centered on Middle East maritime chokepoints and European conflict zones. While the GERI index shows a slight retreat, the sharp rise in EERI underscores regional vulnerability in Europe. Market pricing remains relatively muted, reflecting either risk absorption or skepticism about immediate supply shocks. However, the probability of regime escalation remains material, particularly if Iran enforces Hormuz Strait closure or if European missile strikes intensify. Traders should monitor multi-week path indicators closely, especially maritime security and diplomatic developments, to anticipate rapid shifts
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -1.16% between recorded quotes; TTF +0.18% between recorded quotes; GERI 46 → 38. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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