GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
40 / 100
MODERATE1 day 24 · 7 day 14
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Velislava Petrova: Bulgaria: GERI 40 | Energy Risk Jul 14 — July 14, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 40 (MODERATE) on 2026-07-13. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 40; 1-day change: 24.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-07-13.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€52.54/MWh
+5.82%
Source date: 2026-07-13
VIX
17.16 points
+2.13 points
Source date: 2026-07-13
Brent Crude
$84.68/bbl
+7.94%
Source date: 2026-07-13
EUR/USD
1.1404 USD/EUR
-0.13%
Source date: 2026-07-13
EU Gas Storage
52.50%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-07-13
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Velislava Petrova: Bulgaria is ready to support the extension of sanctions against Russia today - Fakti.bg | 5 | 13.5% | Ukraine Energy & Infrastructure |
| US strikes Iranian ship with drone boats in first-of-its-kind attack | 5 | 5.0% | Al Jazeera News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Moderate risk environment with heightened geopolitical tensions in Middle East and Europe.
- Contagion Status: Elevated cross-regional contagion, driven by simultaneous sanctions, military actions, and supply disruptions.
- Key Drivers: Middle East conflict escalation and European war-related strikes.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 40
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East to Europe: Elevated risk spillover via energy supply routes and sanctions regimes; US maritime blockade and Iranian tensions increase European market risk premium.
- Europe to Global: Sanctions on Russia and Ukraine conflict intensify global energy price volatility, reflected in Brent and TTF gas price jumps.
- Asia Impact: Rising LPG and fuel price risk flagged due to Middle East escalation, potential for supply chain disruptions.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €52.54/MWh | +5.82% |
| VIX | 17.16 points | +2.13 points |
| Brent Crude | $84.68/bbl | +7.94% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1404 USD/EUR | -0.13% |
| EU Gas Storage | 52.50% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: Brent and TTF gas prices have reacted strongly (+7.94%, +5.82%) in line with risk indices, indicating low divergence.
- VIX increase (+2.13%) is moderate, suggesting some risk premium is still underpriced in equity volatility.
- EUR/USD stable, slight depreciation aligns with risk-off but minimal currency market stress.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The sharp rise in GERI (Locked — free account) and EERI (Locked — free account) indexes underscores a rapidly deteriorating geopolitical risk environment, primarily driven by Middle East maritime tensions and European conflict spillover. Brent crude’s near Locked — free account daily gain reflects market pricing in a significant premium for supply disruption risk, amplified by the US resumption of maritime blockade against Iran and reported attacks on shipping. European gas prices similarly respond to intensified missile strikes and sanctions, though storage levels provide slight mitigation. The moderate risk regime is fragile, with a one-third probability of escalation to a high-risk scenario within two weeks. Traders should prioritize monitoring maritime incidents and sanction developments, as these remain critical risk multipliers. Cross-asset correlations confirm energy commodities as primary risk transmission vectors, with equities and currencies showing muted but directional responses.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +7.83% between recorded quotes; TTF +5.82% between recorded quotes; GERI 16 → 40. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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