GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
16 / 100
LOW1 day 0 · 7 day -10
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Nine dead as: GERI 16 | Energy Risk Jul 13 — July 13, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 16 (LOW) on 2026-07-12. The brief covers 18 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 16; 1-day change: 0.
- 18 alerts considered from 2026-07-12.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€49.65/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-07-10
VIX
15.03 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-07-10
Brent Crude
$78.53/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-07-10
EUR/USD
1.1419 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-07-10
EU Gas Storage
52.20%
+0.40 pp
Source date: 2026-07-12
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nine dead as Russia and Ukraine trade drone and missile salvos | 5 | 6.1% | Al Jazeera News |
| Russia and Ukraine Strikes Hit Key Grain Sea Export Ports | 5 | 9.0% | gCaptain Maritime |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Risk Tone: Low, stable from prior day
- Regime: No defined regime currently active; risk environment steady despite geopolitical tensions
- Contagion Status: Elevated war-related alerts in Europe and Middle East, but limited spillover to broader markets as VIX declined slightly
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 16
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Europe: High localized risk from Ukraine-Russia conflict, energy infrastructure attacks, and grain export disruptions.
- Middle East: Elevated risk from Iran-related missile strikes and US retaliatory actions, impacting Gulf supply routes.
- Cross-Region: War risk in Middle East is amplifying energy supply concerns in Europe, especially given OPEC output cuts.
- Spillover: Limited contagion to global financial markets (VIX down), indicating market confidence in containment or offsetting factors.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €49.65/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 15.03 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $78.53/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1419 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 52.20% | +0.40 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- EERI surged Locked — free account points, signaling heightened event risk, yet VIX declined and EUR/USD stable, indicating markets are not pricing in a full risk premium.
- Brent crude’s +4.4% rise aligns with supply concerns but does not reflect extreme risk pricing.
- Interpretation: Market may be discounting risk due to expectations of limited escalation or effective conflict containment.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite a surge in energy event risk (EERI Locked — free account), overall geopolitical risk perception remains contained (GERI stable), reflecting market confidence in limited escalation. Brent crude’s Locked — free account gain confirms supply concerns, primarily from OPEC output cuts and conflict-driven disruptions in Europe and the Middle East. European gas prices are moderately elevated but supported by incremental storage builds, tempering price spikes. Volatility indices and currency markets show muted responses, signaling a market discounting of worst-case scenarios. However, the probability of regime transition to medium risk is non-negligible (Locked — free account), warranting close monitoring of conflict developments and OPEC supply actions. Traders should watch key energy infrastructure and storage metrics for early signals of risk materialization or containment.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +4.40% between recorded quotes; TTF +1.74% between recorded quotes; GERI 16 → 16. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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