GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
16 / 100
LOW1 day -11 · 7 day -10
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
NATO early warning: GERI 16 | Energy Risk Jul 12 — July 12, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 16 (LOW) on 2026-07-11. The brief covers 18 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 16; 1-day change: -11.
- 18 alerts considered from 2026-07-11.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€48.80/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-07-10
VIX
15.03 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-07-10
Brent Crude
$75.22/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-07-10
EUR/USD
1.1419 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-07-10
EU Gas Storage
51.80%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-07-11
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| NATO early warning and control plane spotted off Black Sea coast | 5 | 4.5% | TASS World News |
| Ukraine’s energy strikes bring war home to Russia, says Russian opposition figure - Yahoo News Canada | 5 | 4.7% | Ukraine Energy & Infrastructure |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
Regime: Stabilizing risk tone confirmed by declining global and European energy risk indices.
Contagion Status: Persistent geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East maintain elevated war-related risk spillovers, but market volatility and risk premiums are easing moderately.
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2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 16
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Europe → Russia: Ukrainian strikes and Russian counterstrikes maintain bidirectional military risk spillover; however, market response is muted, indicating partial risk discounting.
- Middle East → Global Shipping: Heightened Iran-US rhetoric and Israeli operations in Lebanon increase maritime security risk, influencing global oil shipping routes (Hormuz Strait).
- South America → Global Energy: Brazil’s Amazon drilling raises environmental and operational risk, but limited immediate contagion to global markets.
- Somalia → Global Shipping: Piracy resurgence adds to maritime risk premium, but impact remains localized.
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4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €48.80/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 15.03 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $75.22/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1419 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 51.80% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: Despite multiple top-level war alerts (all 5/5 severity), Brent crude prices declined nearly 1%, indicating market discounting of immediate supply shocks.
- Gas prices rose modestly (+1.12%) reflecting sensitivity to Middle East tensions and cautious optimism from improved EU storage.
- VIX decline (-0.81%) suggests reduced market fear despite geopolitical flashpoints, indicating a divergence between headline risk and realized volatility.
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6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite a series of high-severity war alerts across multiple regions, the energy market shows signs of risk absorption and stabilization. The sharp declines in GERI and EERI indices alongside falling VIX suggest that markets are pricing in these geopolitical risks as manageable in the near term, likely due to robust EU gas storage and lack of immediate supply chain disruptions. However, persistent military activity in Ukraine and Middle East hotspots, combined with renewed shipping risks in critical maritime chokepoints, sustain a non-negligible probability of escalation. Traders should monitor key geopolitical flashpoints closely, as a sudden escalation could rapidly reverse current market complacency and trigger sharp price moves, particularly in crude and LNG markets. Risk management strategies should balance the current stabilizing environment against the elevated baseline geopolitical risk.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +0.00% between recorded quotes; TTF +1.12% between recorded quotes; GERI 27 → 16. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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