GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
27 / 100
MODERATE1 day -4 · 7 day 1
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Zaporozhye nuke survived: GERI 27 | Energy Risk Jul 11 — July 11, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 27 (MODERATE) on 2026-07-10. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 27; 1-day change: -4.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-07-10.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€48.26/MWh
-2.62%
Source date: 2026-07-10
VIX
15.03 points
-0.81 points
Source date: 2026-07-10
Brent Crude
$75.22/bbl
-0.90%
Source date: 2026-07-10
EUR/USD
1.1419 USD/EUR
-0.02%
Source date: 2026-07-10
EU Gas Storage
51.50%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-07-10
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zaporozhye nuke survived over 400 Ukrainian drone attacks since mid-March — Rosatom | 5 | 1.7% | TASS World News |
| Ukrainian attacks cause chaos at fuel stations across Russia | 5 | 16.2% | Al Jazeera News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
Regime: Stabilizing
Contagion Status: Moderate cross-regional tension with localized flare-ups in Middle East and Europe, but no systemic escalation. Risk tone improved as GERI and EERI indices declined, reflecting easing immediate volatility despite persistent geopolitical threats.
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2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 27
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global Oil Markets: Renewed fighting risk in Hormuz corridor sustains premium on oil prices; Brent down 0.9% reflects profit-taking but underlying risk remains.
- Europe → Russia: Ukrainian drone attacks causing fuel station chaos in Russia increase regional energy insecurity, pressuring TTF gas (-2.62%).
- Kazakhstan → Europe: Petroleum export ban extension tightens supply chain, adding to European energy cost pressures despite mild gas storage build (+0.20%).
- US Military Presence → Middle East: US early warning aircraft near Persian Gulf signals heightened alert, increasing risk transmission potential.
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4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €48.26/MWh | -2.62% |
| VIX | 15.03 points | -0.81 points |
| Brent Crude | $75.22/bbl | -0.90% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1419 USD/EUR | -0.02% |
| EU Gas Storage | 51.50% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
Despite high alert levels (5/5) on multiple war-related events, Brent and TTF prices have declined modestly, suggesting market may be pricing in some risk mitigation or temporary reprieve.
- Volatility Index (VIX) decline contrasts with geopolitical alerts, indicating possible complacency or expectation of limited escalation.
- EU gas storage rising slightly supports market resilience despite export bans and regional conflict.
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6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
EnergyRiskIQ algorithms identify a cautiously stabilizing risk environment amid persistent geopolitical flashpoints. Market pricing shows tentative relief but underlying structural risks in Middle East and Eurasian energy corridors remain elevated. The divergence between high event risk signals and moderate price declines suggests market participants may be discounting short-term flare-ups or expecting diplomatic resolutions. However, the probability of renewed escalation remains material, particularly if Hormuz tensions intensify or Ukraine conflict disrupts fuel logistics further. Traders should maintain flexible hedging strategies, closely monitor multi-week risk path indicators, and prepare for volatility spikes in oil and gas markets. Power sector stress from summer heatwaves adds a layer of complexity, warranting attention to regional grid stability.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: Escalation · Probability: 40% illustrative weight, not a calibrated forecast
Observed outcome: BRENT -0.90% between recorded quotes; TTF -2.62% between recorded quotes; GERI 31 → 27. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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