GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
31 / 100
MODERATE1 day -12 · 7 day 7
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
The Strait Of: GERI 31 | Energy Risk Jul 10 — July 10, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 31 (MODERATE) on 2026-07-09. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 31; 1-day change: -12.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-07-09.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€49.56/MWh
+0.75%
Source date: 2026-07-09
VIX
15.84 points
-1.06 points
Source date: 2026-07-09
Brent Crude
$75.90/bbl
-4.50%
Source date: 2026-07-09
EUR/USD
1.1422 USD/EUR
+0.16%
Source date: 2026-07-09
EU Gas Storage
51.30%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-07-09
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Strait Of Malacca Faces Growing Fears Of Copycat Shipping Fees | 5 | 30.5% | OilPrice.com |
| El Paso Maintenance Seen Tightening San Juan Flows Into California, Lifting Prices | 5 | 27.7% | Natural Gas Intelligence |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Moderate risk environment persists with no clear regime classification.
- Contagion Status: Elevated war-related tensions in Middle East and Europe create localized contagion risk, but global indices show mixed signals.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 31
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East: War-risk remains high with shipping route blockades (Hormuz, Malacca), but crude prices slide as tensions temporarily ease. This suggests a lagged contagion effect on global oil markets.
- North America: Maintenance on El Paso pipeline tightens San Juan to California flows, pushing regional prices higher despite global crude weakness.
- Europe: Ukraine strikes on Russian tankers exacerbate supply concerns, sustaining war-risk premiums in European gas markets.
- Spillover: Middle East war-risk elevates global shipping insurance costs, indirectly pressuring European and Asian energy logistics. North American supply constraints offset global price declines, creating regional divergence.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €49.56/MWh | +0.75% |
| VIX | 15.84 points | -1.06 points |
| Brent Crude | $75.90/bbl | -4.50% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1422 USD/EUR | +0.16% |
| EU Gas Storage | 51.30% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Despite high war-risk alerts (GERI components), Brent crude prices fell 4.5%, indicating market pricing may be discounting short-term easing or oversupply concerns.
- European gas prices and storage remain firm, consistent with ongoing supply risks from Ukraine-Russia conflict.
- VIX decline suggests equity markets are not fully pricing in geopolitical risk, highlighting potential underestimation of volatility.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The energy market currently reflects a complex interplay between persistent geopolitical risks and localized supply constraints. The significant drop in Brent crude despite high war-risk alerts suggests market participants are weighing short-term easing or oversupply against longer-term risk premiums. European gas markets remain sensitive to Eastern European conflicts, with storage levels providing some cushion. The divergence between risk indices and market pricing signals potential volatility ahead, especially if Middle East tensions escalate or pipeline maintenance issues prolong. Traders should maintain vigilance on shipping route developments and regional conflict dynamics, as these will be key drivers of near-term energy price volatility and risk regime transitions.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: Containment & De-escalation · Probability: 45% illustrative weight, not a calibrated forecast
Observed outcome: BRENT -4.09% between recorded quotes; TTF +0.75% between recorded quotes; GERI 43 → 31. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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