GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
43 / 100
ELEVATED1 day 16 · 7 day 22
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
US deploys some: GERI 43 | Energy Risk Jul 9 — July 09, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 43 (ELEVATED) on 2026-07-08. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 43; 1-day change: 16.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-07-08.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€49.19/MWh
+2.33%
Source date: 2026-07-08
VIX
16.90 points
+0.77 points
Source date: 2026-07-08
Brent Crude
$79.14/bbl
+4.78%
Source date: 2026-07-08
EUR/USD
1.1404 USD/EUR
-0.33%
Source date: 2026-07-08
EU Gas Storage
51.10%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-07-08
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| US deploys some 20 warships, auxiliary vessels in Arabian Sea — TV | 5 | 1.6% | TASS World News |
| Iran Confirms Strikes On 85 US Military Installations As Middle-East Conflict Escalates - Sahara Reporters | 5 | 11.8% | Saudi Aramco & Saudi Oil |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Moderate risk, with escalation signals in geopolitical and energy supply domains.
- Contagion Status: Elevated cross-regional contagion, particularly from Middle East conflict to European energy markets.
- Key Drivers: Middle East military escalation, Russian diesel export ban, LNG supply disruptions in North America.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 43
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Europe: Direct impact via oil price surge (+5.5%) and shipping route risk (Strait of Hormuz attacks), triggering Russian diesel export ban.
- Middle East → North America: LNG supply disruptions push prices up (+2.33%), reducing EU storage injection incentives.
- Europe → Global: Diesel export ban tightens global diesel supply, increasing risk premiums in refined products markets.
- Cross-asset contagion: Elevated geopolitical risk in Middle East driving energy price volatility and risk premiums globally.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €49.19/MWh | +2.33% |
| VIX | 16.90 points | +0.77 points |
| Brent Crude | $79.14/bbl | +4.78% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1404 USD/EUR | -0.33% |
| EU Gas Storage | 51.10% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Brent crude price up 4.78% aligns well with GERI jump (+16), indicating market pricing reflects heightened geopolitical risk.
- TTF gas price increase (+2.33%) is somewhat muted relative to LNG supply disruption alerts, suggesting partial market absorption or hedging.
- VIX remains relatively low (+0.77), indicating equity market risk sentiment is less reactive than energy-specific risk indices, highlighting divergence in risk perception.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The recent surge in geopolitical risk, primarily driven by intensified Middle East military actions and Russian diesel export bans, is translating into significant upward pressure on energy prices, notably Brent crude (Locked — free account) and European gas (Locked — free account). The risk indices (GERI Locked — free account, EERI Locked — free account) confirm that the market is pricing in sustained elevated risk, with a near Locked — free account probability of escalating to a higher risk regime within the next week. The diesel export ban exacerbates supply tightness in Europe, increasing industrial and transportation cost pressures. Meanwhile, LNG supply disruptions in North America limit European storage injections, raising concerns about winter supply adequacy. Market volatility remains relatively contained (VIX Locked — free account), suggesting energy markets are the primary channel for risk transmission currently. Traders should monitor military developments and export ban status closely, as these will be key drivers for further price volatility and risk regime shifts.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +3.86% between recorded quotes; TTF +2.33% between recorded quotes; GERI 27 → 43. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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