GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
27 / 100
MODERATE1 day 7 · 7 day 7
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Hormuz: GERI 27 | Energy Risk Jul 8 — July 08, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 27 (MODERATE) on 2026-07-07. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 27; 1-day change: 7.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-07-07.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€48.07/MWh
+4.50%
Source date: 2026-07-07
VIX
16.13 points
+0.56 points
Source date: 2026-07-07
Brent Crude
$76.20/bbl
+5.39%
Source date: 2026-07-07
EUR/USD
1.1442 USD/EUR
+0.04%
Source date: 2026-07-07
EU Gas Storage
50.90%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-07-07
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil Jumps on Hormuz Shipping Attacks | 5 | 15.9% | Rigzone |
| US begins striking Iran — CENTCOM | 5 | 6.5% | TASS World News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Risk Tone: Low overall, but localized spikes in geopolitical and energy risk.
- Regime: Transitional, with elevated geopolitical tensions but limited systemic contagion.
- Contagion Status: Contained within Middle East and Russia; limited spillover to Europe and South America.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 27
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global Oil Prices: Hormuz attacks and LNG tanker risk have pushed Brent crude +5.39%, indicating strong direct spillover.
- Russia → Europe: US strikes on Iran and refinery drone attacks in Russia raise European energy risk, but EU gas storage at 50.9% and modest TTF gas rise (+4.5%) suggest limited immediate supply disruption.
- South America: Super El Niño risk flagged but no immediate market impact; potential medium-term energy crisis risk.
- Europe → Global: De-mining mission delays due to Middle East conflict may indirectly affect European security and energy infrastructure confidence.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €48.07/MWh | +4.50% |
| VIX | 16.13 points | +0.56 points |
| Brent Crude | $76.20/bbl | +5.39% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1442 USD/EUR | +0.04% |
| EU Gas Storage | 50.90% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- GERI up +7 signals rising geopolitical risk, yet VIX and EUR/USD remain subdued, indicating market confidence in risk containment.
- Brent and TTF gas prices rise sharply, consistent with risk signals, showing tight supply reaction to Middle East events.
- EERI down Locked — free account despite geopolitical tensions suggests markets discount economic risk, relying on storage and production adjustments (e.g., UAE output rise).
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The recent spike in geopolitical alerts, particularly focused on the Middle East Hormuz corridor and US-Iran tensions, has translated into a notable rise in oil prices (Locked — free account) and regional gas prices (Locked — free account). Despite these shocks, broader market volatility remains contained (VIX Locked — free account), and European gas storage levels provide a buffer against immediate supply disruptions. The divergence between rising geopolitical risk (GERI Locked — free account) and falling economic risk (EERI Locked — free account) suggests markets are pricing in localized, not systemic, risk. Strategic energy infrastructure projects such as Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea pipeline expansion could materially reduce Hormuz-related risk if completed on schedule. However, the risk of escalation remains non-negligible, especially with ongoing US strikes and tanker vulnerabilities. Traders should position for potential oil and LNG price spikes while monitoring diplomatic developments and regional supply chain resilience. The looming Super El Niño adds an additional layer of medium-term uncertainty, particularly for South American energy markets.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +5.82% between recorded quotes; TTF +4.50% between recorded quotes; GERI 20 → 27. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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