GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
22 / 100
MODERATE1 day 3 · 7 day -4
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Hormuz: GERI 22 | Energy Risk Jul 3 — July 03, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 22 (MODERATE) on 2026-07-02. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 22; 1-day change: 3.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-07-02.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€44.24/MWh
+2.62%
Source date: 2026-07-02
VIX
16.15 points
-0.44 points
Source date: 2026-07-02
Brent Crude
$71.61/bbl
+0.89%
Source date: 2026-07-02
EUR/USD
1.1378 USD/EUR
-0.31%
Source date: 2026-07-02
EU Gas Storage
49.50%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-07-02
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran Threatens to Attack Ships for Using Non-Iranian Routes Through Hormuz | 5 | 16.4% | Maritime Executive |
| Saudi Oil Exports Approach Pre-War Levels | 5 | 9.3% | Rigzone |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Current Regime: Low risk environment sustained despite regional tensions.
- Contagion Status: Moderate contagion risk from Middle East to Asia and Black Sea regions due to escalating war-related alerts and fuel supply disruptions.
- Summary: While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Black Sea regions have intensified, global risk appetite remains stable, supported by easing energy prices and steady European gas storage.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 22
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Asia: Iran’s threats and Strait of Hormuz disruptions raise oil supply risk for Asian importers, notably India, increasing regional price volatility and risk premiums.
- Middle East → Europe: Saudi export normalization and OPEC+ output hikes mitigate supply concerns, limiting spillover to European markets despite stalled energy transition highlighted by heat wave stress.
- Black Sea → Central Asia: Russian fuel shortages and drone strikes propagate supply risks to Kyrgyzstan and neighboring states, elevating regional energy security concerns.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €44.24/MWh | +2.62% |
| VIX | 16.15 points | -0.44 points |
| Brent Crude | $71.61/bbl | +0.89% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1378 USD/EUR | -0.31% |
| EU Gas Storage | 49.50% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Brent Price: Despite high war-related alerts, Brent crude is near a four-month low, indicating a disconnect likely due to market discounting of OPEC+ output hikes and Saudi export normalization.
- Energy Risk vs Volatility: Elevated geopolitical risk is not translating into higher market volatility, suggesting risk is perceived as localized or manageable.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite a low overall risk tone, the energy market remains vulnerable to regional geopolitical flashpoints, particularly in the Middle East and Black Sea. The market’s muted reaction to these risks, evidenced by falling oil prices amid high war alerts, suggests confidence in supply buffers such as Saudi exports and OPEC+ output hikes. However, the persistent heat wave in Europe and stalled energy transition pose medium-term challenges, increasing gas price volatility and power sector stress. Traders should maintain vigilance on Iran’s Strait of Hormuz posture and Black Sea security developments, as these have the highest potential to trigger regime shifts and price shocks. Diversification across LNG and European gas storage assets, combined with tactical hedging against sudden oil supply disruptions, is advisable in this environment.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +0.93% between recorded quotes; TTF +2.62% between recorded quotes; GERI 19 → 22. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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