GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
22 / 100
MODERATE1 day 0 · 7 day -3
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Hormuz: GERI 22 | Energy Risk Jul 4 — July 04, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 22 (MODERATE) on 2026-07-03. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 22; 1-day change: 0.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-07-03.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€45.33/MWh
+2.46%
Source date: 2026-07-03
VIX
15.81 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-07-02
Brent Crude
$72.12/bbl
+0.78%
Source date: 2026-07-03
EUR/USD
1.1440 USD/EUR
+0.55%
Source date: 2026-07-03
EU Gas Storage
49.70%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-07-03
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Hormuz oil shipments surge as post-war tanker backlog clearing (still below pre-war) - investingLive | 5 | 6.8% | Saudi Aramco & Saudi Oil |
| Israeli settlers intensify attacks in West Bank, targeting water supplies | 5 | 1.8% | Al Jazeera News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Risk Tone: Low, stable from prior day.
- Regime Status: No defined regime detected; market signals remain mixed without clear trend dominance.
- Contagion Status: Moderate contagion risk within Middle East and Europe due to overlapping geopolitical and energy supply disruptions.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 22
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East to Europe: Elevated risk spillover due to Gulf supply disruptions and missile activity impacting tanker routes; this underpins European jet fuel scarcity and strikes in Ukraine.
- Europe to Global: Escalation of military strikes in Ukraine and Russia’s fuel shortages are pressuring global energy markets, influencing price volatility and regulatory responses (e.g., US DOJ fuel price-gouging enforcement).
- Middle East intra-region: Continued hostilities (Israeli settler attacks, Hezbollah strikes) increase localized risk but limited immediate impact on global energy flows due to partial recovery in tanker backlog.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €45.33/MWh | +2.46% |
| VIX | 15.81 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $72.12/bbl | +0.78% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1440 USD/EUR | +0.55% |
| EU Gas Storage | 49.70% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Despite a sharp rise in EERI (Locked — free account), Brent crude price increase is modest (Locked — free account), indicating partial market discounting of Middle East supply risks.
- TTF gas price surge (+2.46%) aligns with increased European supply concerns, reflecting tighter market conditions.
- VIX decline suggests market complacency or confidence in short-term risk containment despite geopolitical alerts.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The energy market is currently navigating a complex interplay of geopolitical and supply-side dynamics. While the overall risk tone remains low, the sharp rise in energy event risk (EERI Locked — free account) signals heightened volatility potential, particularly in the Middle East and Europe. The partial recovery in Saudi Hormuz oil shipments alleviates some supply pressure but remains below pre-war levels, sustaining a risk premium on Brent crude. European gas markets are more acutely affected, with jet fuel shortages and Russian supply constraints driving prices higher. Market pricing reflects cautious optimism with modest Brent gains and a slight decline in volatility, but the risk of sudden escalation remains significant. Traders should closely monitor geopolitical developments and supply chain indicators to anticipate regime shifts and price inflection points.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +0.71% between recorded quotes; TTF +2.46% between recorded quotes; GERI 22 → 22. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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