GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
19 / 100
LOW1 day -5 · 7 day -8
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Hormuz: GERI 19 | Energy Risk Jul 2 — July 02, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 19 (LOW) on 2026-07-01. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 19; 1-day change: -5.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-07-01.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€43.11/MWh
-1.26%
Source date: 2026-07-01
VIX
16.59 points
+0.14 points
Source date: 2026-07-01
Brent Crude
$70.95/bbl
-3.43%
Source date: 2026-07-01
EUR/USD
1.1413 USD/EUR
+0.24%
Source date: 2026-07-01
EU Gas Storage
49.20%
+0.10 pp
Source date: 2026-07-01
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| UN Suspends Hormuz Ship Evacuations Following Projectile Strike - asatunews.co.id | 5 | 0.1% | IMO Maritime Security |
| The C.H. Robinson “U-Turn” Case: What It Means for Broker Liability | 5 | 3.7% | FreightWaves |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone despite elevated geopolitical and energy tensions.
- Contagion Status: Moderate contagion risk from Middle East and Eastern Europe conflicts impacting global shipping and energy markets.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 19
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global: Strait of Hormuz attack and suspension of ship evacuations raise global shipping risk, increasing oil price volatility and insurance costs.
- Europe → Global: Russian refinery strikes and Ukraine drone campaign force energy supply adjustments, including increased gasoline imports from India, pressuring European gas and oil markets.
- Global → Europe: GPS interference off California and global shipping route disruptions feed back into European supply chains, compounding risk.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €43.11/MWh | -1.26% |
| VIX | 16.59 points | +0.14 points |
| Brent Crude | $70.95/bbl | -3.43% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1413 USD/EUR | +0.24% |
| EU Gas Storage | 49.20% | +0.10 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: Elevated EERI (Locked — free account) contrasts with falling Brent and TTF prices, indicating a temporary market pricing gap likely due to short-term demand concerns or profit-taking after recent rallies.
- VIX stable near 16.6 suggests markets are digesting geopolitical risks without immediate volatility spikes.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite a stabilizing risk tone, underlying geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe remain elevated, driving a complex risk landscape. The divergence between rising European energy risk and falling oil and gas prices suggests market participants are balancing geopolitical risk premiums against demand uncertainty and supply buffers, particularly European gas storage near 50%. The suspension of Hormuz ship evacuations signals persistent vulnerability in a critical chokepoint, maintaining a non-negligible risk of sudden price shocks. Traders should prepare for potential regime shifts with a roughly 40% probability of escalation in the near term, focusing on dynamic hedging strategies and close monitoring of multi-region spillovers affecting shipping and energy supply chains.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -3.35% between recorded quotes; TTF -1.26% between recorded quotes; GERI 24 → 19. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
Create a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios.
| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
Get tomorrow’s risk signals before the market moves.
Open a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios. Real-time features depend on product subscription.
Create free accountDaily Intelligence Report is an account-managed paid product.