GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
24 / 100
MODERATE1 day -10 · 7 day -1
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
The Insurance Chokepoint:: GERI 24 | Energy Risk Jul 1 — July 01, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 24 (MODERATE) on 2026-06-30. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 24; 1-day change: -10.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-06-30.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€43.66/MWh
+4.40%
Source date: 2026-06-30
VIX
16.45 points
-1.20 points
Source date: 2026-06-30
Brent Crude
$73.41/bbl
+1.19%
Source date: 2026-06-30
EUR/USD
1.1386 USD/EUR
-0.15%
Source date: 2026-06-29
EU Gas Storage
49.10%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-06-30
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Insurance Chokepoint: War-Risk Pricing as an Instrument of Coercion | 5 | 22.4% | Maritime Executive |
| Ever Lovely Hit by Projectile Off Oman: IRGC Warning, IMO Pauses Evacuation - News and Statistics - IndexBox | 5 | 0.1% | IMO Maritime Security |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone confirmed by a GERI drop of 10 points to 24.
- Contagion Status: Elevated geopolitical tensions in Middle East and Europe persist, with war-related alerts driving uneven regional risk transmission.
- Key Drivers: Middle East war risk pricing, Russia-Ukraine conflict spillovers, and energy supply disruptions.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 24
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Europe: Hormuz disruptions and IRGC warnings increase European LNG and oil price volatility.
- Europe → Central Asia: Russian refinery disruptions ripple into Central Asian fuel markets, elevating regional energy risk.
- Russia → Global: Drone strikes and security incidents raise global war-risk premiums, impacting insurance and shipping costs.
- Middle East → Global: UN warnings on Hormuz crisis embed lasting economic scars, amplifying global energy market uncertainty.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €43.66/MWh | +4.40% |
| VIX | 16.45 points | -1.20 points |
| Brent Crude | $73.41/bbl | +1.19% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1386 USD/EUR | -0.15% |
| EU Gas Storage | 49.10% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Brent crude and TTF gas prices have risen notably (+1.19%, +4.40%) despite a stabilizing GERI (-10). This divergence suggests markets are front-running potential supply disruptions from Middle East and Russia.
- VIX decline (Locked — free account) contrasts with heightened EERI (Locked — free account), indicating equity volatility is not fully capturing energy-specific geopolitical risk.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The energy risk environment is stabilizing on headline indexes but remains fragile due to persistent geopolitical flashpoints in the Middle East and Russia. Rising event frequency (EERI Locked — free account) signals continued operational disruptions, particularly in LNG trade and Russian fuel supply chains. Market pricing of Brent and TTF gas is already reflecting supply risk premiums, diverging from the broader risk index decline. The probability of escalation remains material, especially if Iran supply constraints or Hormuz disruptions intensify. Traders should maintain vigilance on shipping and insurance cost signals, while positioning for potential volatility in energy commodities and regional fuel markets. Storage buffers provide short-term relief but do not mitigate medium-term structural risks.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +0.49% between recorded quotes; TTF +4.40% between recorded quotes; GERI 34 → 24. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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