GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
34 / 100
MODERATE1 day 13 · 7 day 11
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Yellow Corp. escapes: GERI 34 | Energy Risk Jun 30 — June 30, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 34 (MODERATE) on 2026-06-29. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 34; 1-day change: 13.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-06-29.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€41.82/MWh
+1.80%
Source date: 2026-06-25
VIX
17.65 points
-0.76 points
Source date: 2026-06-29
Brent Crude
$73.05/bbl
-0.16%
Source date: 2026-06-29
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-06-29
EU Gas Storage
48.90%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-06-29
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yellow Corp. escapes WARN Act payouts | 5 | 3.7% | FreightWaves |
| Ukraine's Refinery Strikes Push Russia Into a Fuel Crisis | 5 | 24.7% | OilPrice.com |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
Regime: Moderate risk environment with elevated geopolitical and supply disruption concerns.
Contagion Status: Rising cross-regional contagion, particularly from Eastern Europe and Middle East tensions impacting global energy markets.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 34
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Eastern Europe: Ukraine refinery strikes and Russian military actions elevate risk, spilling over into European energy supply disruptions (Brovary outages).
- Middle East: Heightened warnings over Hormuz crossings push commodity prices, influencing global oil price volatility.
- Asia: India’s energy response to West Asia disruption signals regional supply chain vulnerabilities.
- Global: Cargo theft detection innovations suggest rising security concerns across supply chains.
- South America: Amazon oil drilling controversy adds environmental risk, potential for future regulatory or operational disruptions.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €41.82/MWh | +1.80% |
| VIX | 17.65 points | -0.76 points |
| Brent Crude | $73.05/bbl | -0.16% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 48.90% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Brent Crude: GERI +13 increase contrasts with near-flat Brent (-0.16%), indicating market may be underpricing geopolitical risk in oil.
- Risk Signal vs TTF Gas: Strong alignment; gas prices up 1.8% reflecting supply disruptions and heightened regional risk.
- Risk Signal vs VIX: Divergence as VIX falls slightly despite rising geopolitical risk, suggesting equity markets may be complacent or focused on other factors.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The risk environment has shifted materially higher with a +13 jump in geopolitical energy risk, primarily driven by war-related disruptions in Eastern Europe and Middle East tensions. Despite this, Brent crude prices remain subdued, suggesting a disconnect between risk perception and market pricing, possibly due to recent overshooting on the downside. European gas markets are more reactive, reflecting immediate supply disruptions and storage constraints. The moderate risk tone and a 35% probability of regime escalation warrant cautious positioning, emphasizing gas market hedges and selective exposure to oil price rebounds if geopolitical tensions intensify. Monitoring supply chain innovations and regional policy responses will be critical to anticipate further risk propagation or mitigation.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +1.56% between recorded quotes; TTF +0.00% between recorded quotes; GERI 21 → 34. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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