GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
21 / 100
MODERATE1 day -4 · 7 day -1
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Tanker Struck by: GERI 21 | Energy Risk Jun 29 — June 29, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 21 (MODERATE) on 2026-06-28. The brief covers 16 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 21; 1-day change: -4.
- 16 alerts considered from 2026-06-28.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€41.82/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-06-25
VIX
18.41 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-06-26
Brent Crude
$71.93/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-06-26
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-06-26
EU Gas Storage
48.60%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-06-28
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tanker Struck by Drone off Oman and the US Again Responds with New Strikes | 5 | 12.8% | Maritime Executive |
| Emergency outage covered significant part of Zaporozhye Region | 5 | 1.6% | TASS World News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone confirmed by GERI decline (Locked — free account) and EERI sharp drop (Locked — free account).
- Contagion Status: Middle East geopolitical tensions remain primary contagion source; however, global risk indices suggest diminishing spillover intensity.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 21
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East: High-intensity military strikes and drone attacks sustain regional risk but show limited contagion beyond immediate neighbors.
- Russia: Emergency power outage in Zaporozhye region signals localized supply disruption risk; no current evidence of wider regional escalation.
- North Africa: Social unrest linked to energy infrastructure issues (pipeline explosion, protests) remains a moderate localized risk.
- Global: Workforce shortages in shipping contribute to global supply chain friction but risk impact is diffuse and stabilizing.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €41.82/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 18.41 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $71.93/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 48.60% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Brent Price: Elevated Middle East risk (EGSI-M Locked — free account) contrasts with Brent’s Locked — free account decline, indicating market may be discounting risk escalation or factoring in demand softness.
- TTF Gas vs EERI: Rising TTF gas prices diverge from sharply falling EERI, implying localized European supply concerns outweigh global event risk perceptions.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The energy risk environment is currently stabilizing despite persistent high-risk events in the Middle East and localized supply disruptions in Russia and North Africa. Market pricing reflects a cautious stance—Brent crude’s decline amid geopolitical tension suggests demand concerns or risk discounting, while European gas prices rise on supply tightness. The divergence between event risk indices and market moves underscores the importance of regional supply fundamentals over headline geopolitical risk in near-term price formation. Traders should maintain vigilance on Middle East military developments and Russian infrastructure status, with a watchful eye on global shipping workforce recovery as a key factor in supply chain normalization. Portfolio strategies should balance exposure to European gas markets with hedges against sudden geopolitical escalations.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: Continued Stabilization · Probability: 60% illustrative weight, not a calibrated forecast
Observed outcome: BRENT -1.57% between recorded quotes; TTF +1.80% between recorded quotes; GERI 25 → 21. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
Create a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios.
| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
Get tomorrow’s risk signals before the market moves.
Open a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios. Real-time features depend on product subscription.
Create free accountDaily Intelligence Report is an account-managed paid product.