GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
25 / 100
MODERATE1 day -2 · 7 day 3
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Tanzania's Power Outage:: GERI 25 | Energy Risk Jun 28 — June 28, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 25 (MODERATE) on 2026-06-27. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 25; 1-day change: -2.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-06-27.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€41.08/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-06-25
VIX
18.41 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-06-26
Brent Crude
$73.08/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-06-26
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-06-26
EU Gas Storage
48.30%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-06-27
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tanzania's Power Outage: National Grid Crisis - Devdiscourse | 5 | 7.3% | Saudi Aramco & Saudi Oil |
| CENTCOM confirms new strikes on military sites in Iran | 5 | 4.6% | TASS World News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing, with marginal de-escalation in risk indicators despite persistent conflict alerts.
- Contagion Status: Regional tensions in Middle East and Russia continue to propagate risk spillovers; however, no systemic contagion detected beyond these zones.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 25
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global: High risk transmission via tanker attacks and US-Iran military exchanges, sustaining elevated global maritime risk premiums.
- Russia → Europe: Ukrainian missile strikes on Russian defense plants maintain pressure on European energy security perceptions, but no immediate supply disruption reported.
- Tanzania (Middle East region tag anomaly): National grid crisis signals localized supply disruption with limited contagion outside regional power markets.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €41.08/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 18.41 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $73.08/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 48.30% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- War Risk vs Brent Price: Elevated war risk in Middle East and Russia contrasts with Brent crude price decline (-2.29%), indicating possible market anticipation of demand slowdown or strategic reserve releases.
- Gas Prices vs Storage: TTF gas prices up modestly (+0.61%) while EU storage rises (+0.30%), suggesting market pricing in mild supply tightness despite improving inventories.
- Volatility vs Risk Indices: VIX down (-0.48) while risk indices remain elevated, pointing to market complacency or risk premium compression in equity volatility.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite persistent high-grade alerts on Middle East military confrontations and Russia-Ukraine conflict, global energy risk indices show signs of marginal easing, reflecting market adaptation and possible anticipation of limited escalation. Brent crude’s 2.29% decline amid elevated geopolitical risk suggests demand concerns or inventory management are currently outweighing supply fears. European gas markets remain resilient with rising storage and modest price increases, indicating effective risk mitigation. The risk regime remains stabilizing but fragile, with a material (~25%) chance of renewed escalation that could rapidly shift market dynamics. Traders should maintain vigilance on maritime security developments and regional military actions, as these remain key drivers of near-term energy price volatility and risk premiums.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +0.00% between recorded quotes; TTF +0.61% between recorded quotes; GERI 27 → 25. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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