GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
27 / 100
MODERATE1 day -4 · 7 day 6
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
US ready to: GERI 27 | Energy Risk Jun 27 — June 27, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 27 (MODERATE) on 2026-06-26. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 27; 1-day change: -4.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-06-26.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€40.83/MWh
-0.07%
Source date: 2026-06-25
VIX
18.41 points
-0.48 points
Source date: 2026-06-26
Brent Crude
$73.08/bbl
-2.29%
Source date: 2026-06-26
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-06-26
EU Gas Storage
48.00%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-06-26
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| US ready to discuss disagreements with Iran, but to respond to violence — JD Vance | 5 | 6.5% | TASS World News |
| US servicemen confirm strikes on Iran | 5 | 4.5% | TASS World News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.
- Contagion Status: Moderate contagion from Middle East and Russia conflict zones into European energy markets.
- Summary: Elevated war-related alerts persist, primarily in Middle East and Russia, but market volatility and risk indices show slight easing.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 27
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Europe: Elevated risk from Strait of Hormuz tensions and US-Iran strikes, but limited direct impact on European gas prices or storage so far.
- Russia → Europe: Continued war actions in Ukraine and sanctions (Serbia's NIS license extension) maintain pressure, but UK grid warnings and supply issues are contained.
- US → Middle East: US military responses escalate conflict risk but also signal readiness for dialogue, tempering risk spillover.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €40.83/MWh | -0.07% |
| VIX | 18.41 points | -0.48 points |
| Brent Crude | $73.08/bbl | -2.29% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 48.00% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Elevated war alerts contrast with declining Brent prices and stable gas prices, indicating market may be discounting prolonged conflict impact or expecting diplomatic resolution.
- VIX decline supports lower perceived systemic risk despite geopolitical events.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite a high volume of severe war-related alerts, particularly involving US-Iran tensions and Russia-Ukraine conflict, market pricing reflects a stabilizing risk regime. Brent crude’s Locked — free account decline and near-flat European gas prices suggest the market is either discounting a limited conflict impact or anticipating diplomatic engagement. The slight decrease in GERI (Locked — free account) supports this view, while the uptick in EERI (Locked — free account) signals ongoing event risks. EU gas storage remains a key buffer, currently stable at Locked — free account, mitigating immediate supply concerns. Traders should monitor escalation triggers closely, especially US-Iran military actions and UK grid warnings, as these have the highest potential to shift the regime towards heightened risk and volatility. Portfolio positioning should balance readiness for renewed conflict-driven price spikes against the prevailing market expectation of stabilization.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -2.26% between recorded quotes; TTF +0.00% between recorded quotes; GERI 31 → 27. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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