GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
31 / 100
MODERATE1 day 6 · 7 day 12
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Hormuz: GERI 31 | Energy Risk Jun 26 — June 26, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 31 (MODERATE) on 2026-06-25. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 31; 1-day change: 6.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-06-25.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€40.83/MWh
-0.07%
Source date: 2026-06-25
VIX
18.89 points
+0.26 points
Source date: 2026-06-25
Brent Crude
$74.77/bbl
+1.95%
Source date: 2026-06-25
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-06-25
EU Gas Storage
47.70%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-06-25
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil Rebounds After Hormuz Ship Attack | 5 | 5.8% | Rigzone |
| Iraq Denies Plans To Quit OPEC Hours After Warning It Could Consider Exit - News18 | 5 | 32.4% | Iraq Oil & OPEC |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
Regime: Moderate risk environment persists with elevated geopolitical tensions centered on the Strait of Hormuz and OPEC dynamics.
Contagion Status: Risk signals from Middle East conflicts are spilling over into global energy markets, with moderate cross-regional contagion evident.
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2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 31
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global: Maritime conflict and OPEC uncertainty are driving Brent crude +1.95%, signaling direct risk transmission to global oil prices.
- Europe → Global: Elevated tensions in the Strait and Iraq’s OPEC stance affect European energy sentiment, though TTF gas prices remain stable (-0.07%).
- Russia (military incident): Limited direct market impact but contributes to overall risk perception.
- North America: Labor strike in California introduces localized supply chain risk with potential global commodity ripple effects.
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4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €40.83/MWh | -0.07% |
| VIX | 18.89 points | +0.26 points |
| Brent Crude | $74.77/bbl | +1.95% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 47.70% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Brent crude price increase (Locked — free account) aligns with elevated GERI and EERI, showing no significant divergence.
- TTF gas price stability despite rising EERI suggests possible market confidence in European storage (Locked — free account full) mitigating immediate supply concerns.
- VIX marginally up, indicating market volatility is not yet fully pricing in geopolitical risk escalation.
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6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The recent surge in geopolitical risk indices, driven primarily by Middle East maritime tensions and Iraq’s OPEC posture, is translating into a near 2% rebound in Brent crude prices. This reflects a market increasingly sensitive to supply disruption fears. However, European gas markets remain relatively insulated due to robust storage levels, limiting contagion in the gas sector. The moderate risk regime suggests cautious positioning, with a non-negligible probability (~35%) of escalation that could push energy prices higher and increase volatility. Traders should monitor key geopolitical developments closely, especially in the Strait of Hormuz and OPEC negotiations, as these will be pivotal in determining risk trajectories and cross-asset responses over the coming weeks.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +2.23% between recorded quotes; TTF -0.07% between recorded quotes; GERI 25 → 31. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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