GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
25 / 100
MODERATE1 day 11 · 7 day 7
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Powerful earthquake rocks: GERI 25 | Energy Risk Jun 25 — June 25, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 25 (MODERATE) on 2026-06-24. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 25; 1-day change: 11.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-06-24.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€40.86/MWh
-2.76%
Source date: 2026-06-24
VIX
18.63 points
-0.86 points
Source date: 2026-06-24
Brent Crude
$73.14/bbl
-5.01%
Source date: 2026-06-24
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-06-24
EU Gas Storage
47.40%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-06-24
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Powerful earthquake rocks Venezuela | 5 | 4.5% | TASS World News |
| European heatwave, scorching weather triggers UK ‘red’ warning | 5 | 1.9% | Al Jazeera News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Low risk environment sustained despite multiple high-severity geopolitical alerts.
- Contagion Status: Limited contagion observed; regional conflicts and energy disruptions have not escalated into systemic risk.
- Risk Tone: Low, supported by declining EERI (Locked — free account) and stable EGSI-M (Locked — free account), despite GERI rising (Locked — free account).
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 25
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East: High conflict intensity (US-Iran strikes, missile interceptions) increases regional supply risk, but Brent contango suggests market pricing in surplus supply.
- Europe: Heatwave triggering ‘red’ warnings adds demand-side stress but no immediate supply shock; EU gas storage slightly up (+0.20), mitigating risk.
- Russia: Earthquake and political rhetoric (Medvedev on NATO) raise regional geopolitical tension but limited direct energy market impact.
- North Africa: Financial weakness in Nigeria flagged but isolated from global energy markets currently.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €40.86/MWh | -2.76% |
| VIX | 18.63 points | -0.86 points |
| Brent Crude | $73.14/bbl | -5.01% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 47.40% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk signal vs Market Pricing:
- GERI up +11 indicates rising geopolitical risk, but Brent crude down 5% and entering contango suggests market expects supply to remain ample or increase.
- EERI decline (Locked — free account) contrasts with high war-category alerts, indicating energy-specific event risk is not perceived as escalating.
- EU gas storage rising slightly (+0.20) supports lower gas prices despite heatwave demand warnings.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite a surge in geopolitical alerts, particularly in the Middle East and Europe, the energy market is signaling a disconnect. Brent crude’s entry into contango and a Locked — free account price drop indicate market participants anticipate a supply surplus or easing of tensions. The decline in EERI supports this view, suggesting energy-specific risks are not escalating in line with geopolitical headlines. European gas markets are relatively stable with slight storage gains mitigating demand pressures from the heatwave. The US-Iran conflict remains a key risk factor, but current missile interceptions and strikes have not yet translated into supply disruptions. Traders should monitor Middle East developments closely as escalation could rapidly shift the risk regime. Meanwhile, the divergence between risk indices and market pricing suggests opportunities in positioning for either a supply-driven price rebound or continued market complacency.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -5.01% between recorded quotes; TTF -2.76% between recorded quotes; GERI 14 → 25. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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