GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
14 / 100
LOW1 day -7 · 7 day -4
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
UAE oil exports: GERI 14 | Energy Risk Jun 24 — June 24, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 14 (LOW) on 2026-06-23. The brief covers 18 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 14; 1-day change: -7.
- 18 alerts considered from 2026-06-23.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€42.02/MWh
-0.40%
Source date: 2026-06-23
VIX
19.49 points
+2.21 points
Source date: 2026-06-23
Brent Crude
$77.00/bbl
-1.47%
Source date: 2026-06-23
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-06-23
EU Gas Storage
47.20%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-06-23
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| UAE oil exports surge of pre-war levels amid Middle East tensions - Crypto Briefing | 5 | 4.5% | ADNOC & UAE Energy |
| Geopolitical Instability Remains Shipping’s Top Concern for Fourth Straight Year | 5 | 2.8% | gCaptain Maritime |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk environment indicated by declining GERI and EERI indices (Locked — free account points each).
- Contagion Status: Moderate; geopolitical tensions persist but market volatility (VIX +2.21%) and energy price moves suggest contained spillover.
- Summary: Despite ongoing Middle East conflict risks, risk appetite is cautiously improving with slight easing in energy and equity volatility.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 14
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global: UAE export recovery partially mitigates global supply shock fears, reducing spillover to global energy markets.
- Europe → Global: Russian diesel export ban talk and Ukraine missile strikes maintain regional risk but limited global contagion due to partial market adjustments.
- Asia → Global: Inflation pressures from El Niño and fertilizer costs add inflation risk but not direct energy supply disruption.
- Net: Risk transmission remains directional from Middle East and Russia to global energy and shipping sectors but is currently absorbed without systemic escalation.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €42.02/MWh | -0.40% |
| VIX | 19.49 points | +2.21 points |
| Brent Crude | $77.00/bbl | -1.47% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 47.20% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- GERI and EERI indices down Locked — free account points each, yet Brent only fell Locked — free account, indicating market prices remain somewhat cautious.
- VIX rising suggests market participants price in tail risks not fully captured by declining risk indices.
- EU gas storage steady, TTF gas price decline muted, showing energy market resilience versus geopolitical risk signals.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The energy risk landscape shows signs of cautious stabilization with key mitigating factors including UAE’s near pre-war export levels and steady EU gas storage. However, persistent geopolitical flashpoints—Russian export restrictions and Middle East tensions—maintain a risk premium embedded in market volatility and commodity prices. The divergence between declining risk indices and modest price moves suggests markets are balancing optimism with caution. Traders should prepare for asymmetric outcomes: a likely stable regime with a meaningful tail risk of escalation. Hedging strategies should remain dynamic, emphasizing protection against renewed shocks while capturing upside in a stabilizing environment.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -1.52% between recorded quotes; TTF -0.40% between recorded quotes; GERI 21 → 14. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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