GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
21 / 100
MODERATE1 day 7 · 7 day 4
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Hormuz: GERI 21 | Energy Risk Jun 23 — June 23, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 21 (MODERATE) on 2026-06-22. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 21; 1-day change: 7.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-06-22.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€42.19/MWh
-2.79%
Source date: 2026-06-22
VIX
17.28 points
+0.50 points
Source date: 2026-06-22
Brent Crude
$78.19/bbl
-4.13%
Source date: 2026-06-22
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-06-22
EU Gas Storage
47.00%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-06-22
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Half-Open, Half-Closed Strait of Hormuz Baffles Oil Markets | 5 | 30.3% | OilPrice.com |
| Cyberattacks on Indian travel sector surge amid holiday booking rush - PSU Watch | 5 | 4.3% | India Oil & Energy |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Risk Tone: Low
- Regime Status: Transitional, with elevated geopolitical tensions but contained market volatility
- Contagion Status: Moderate cross-regional spillover risk, primarily from Middle East to Europe and Black Sea
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 21
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East: Core risk origin; Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Qatar LNG incident elevate energy supply risk
- Europe: Impacted via increased gas prices (TTF -2.79%) and reliance on Russian and Saudi fuel oil due to Iran conflict
- Black Sea: Russian fuel rationing amid Ukraine attacks adds localized supply constraints
- Asia: Cyberattacks on Indian travel sector indicate rising non-physical risk vectors affecting economic stability
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €42.19/MWh | -2.79% |
| VIX | 17.28 points | +0.50 points |
| Brent Crude | $78.19/bbl | -4.13% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 47.00% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signals vs Market Pricing:
- Elevated geopolitical and energy risk indices contrast with declining Brent and TTF prices, indicating market pricing in short-term demand softness or risk premium compression.
- VIX remains subdued, suggesting market complacency despite alerts.
- Potential underpricing of Middle East geopolitical risk, especially regarding Strait of Hormuz and LNG supply disruptions.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS WITH PORTFOLIO IMPLICATIONS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION: EnergyRiskIQ Analyst Note
Despite a low overall risk tone, the energy market is navigating a complex risk landscape driven by Middle East geopolitical tensions and energy infrastructure vulnerabilities. The partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the Qatar LNG explosion represent key supply-side risk factors that have not fully translated into price premiums, suggesting market underestimation of escalation potential. European gas markets show resilience due to storage buffers but remain sensitive to heatwave-driven demand and fuel switching dynamics. Cybersecurity risks in Asia introduce a novel vector of economic disruption that could compound supply chain fragilities. Traders should monitor these multi-region risk spillovers closely, as the probability of regime transition to moderate risk remains material in the near term.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -4.13% between recorded quotes; TTF -2.79% between recorded quotes; GERI 14 → 21. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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