GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
14 / 100
LOW1 day -11 · 7 day -3
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Hormuz: GERI 14 | Energy Risk Jun 22 — June 22, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 14 (LOW) on 2026-06-21. The brief covers 9 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 14; 1-day change: -11.
- 9 alerts considered from 2026-06-21.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€43.40/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-06-19
VIX
16.78 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-06-18
Brent Crude
$81.56/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-06-19
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-06-19
EU Gas Storage
46.70%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-06-21
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hormuz Crisis Sparks a Middle East Pipeline Boom | 5 | 42.1% | OilPrice.com |
| Iran’s chief negotiator warns US against threatening Tehran | 5 | 6.6% | TASS World News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone with reduced systemic stress.
- Contagion Status: Moderate contagion from Middle East geopolitical tensions, partially offset by easing US-Iran frictions and Iraq’s oil production recovery.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 14
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Asia: Hormuz crisis drives India’s energy strategy pivot, increasing Asian import dependency risk.
- Middle East → Europe: Aluminum supply chain disruptions due to war and transit issues, pressuring European industrial metals.
- Black Sea → Europe: Ukrainian strikes on Crimea oil facilities elevate regional supply risk, impacting European energy security.
- Middle East → Global: US-Iran rhetoric remains a wildcard; Trump’s warnings sustain geopolitical premium on oil prices.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €43.40/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 16.78 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $81.56/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 46.70% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Brent’s +1.47% rise aligns with elevated Middle East risk but underprices Black Sea conflict impact, suggesting latent upside risk.
- TTF Gas’s +3.11% gain outpaces modest EU gas storage increase (+0.3%), indicating market pricing in supply disruption fears beyond fundamentals.
- VIX remains subdued despite geopolitical alerts, reflecting market complacency or confidence in conflict containment.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The current risk environment reflects a cautious stabilization phase amid persistent geopolitical flashpoints. The Hormuz crisis has catalyzed a structural shift in regional energy logistics, notably impacting Asian import strategies and European industrial supply chains. Brent crude and TTF gas prices incorporate these risks but may underprice potential Black Sea conflict spillovers. Market complacency, as seen in subdued volatility, suggests a window for tactical positioning ahead of possible regime shifts. Portfolio strategies should balance exposure to energy price upside against geopolitical event risks, emphasizing flexible LNG and storage plays while hedging industrial sector vulnerabilities.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +1.47% between recorded quotes; TTF +3.11% between recorded quotes; GERI 25 → 14. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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