GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
25 / 100
MODERATE1 day 8 · 7 day 10
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
OPEC First Civil: GERI 25 | Energy Risk Jun 21 — June 21, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 25 (MODERATE) on 2026-06-20. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 25; 1-day change: 8.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-06-20.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€42.09/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-06-19
VIX
16.78 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-06-18
Brent Crude
$80.38/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-06-19
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-06-19
EU Gas Storage
46.40%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-06-20
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPEC First Civil War | Iran vs Saudi Arabia Oil Crisis - houseofsaud.com | 5 | 70.0% | OPEC & Oil Markets |
| Energy crisis: OPEC cuts crude oil and Russia closes its gas pipeline - Atalayar | 5 | 70.0% | OPEC & Oil Markets |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Low risk tone sustained despite geopolitical escalations.
- Contagion Status: Moderate contagion risk from Middle East conflicts into European energy markets; Black Sea pipeline disruptions add to regional supply uncertainty.
- Key Drivers: Middle East war alerts (Iran-Saudi conflict, attacks on critical oil infrastructure), Black Sea energy disruptions, and ongoing US-Iran diplomatic efforts.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 25
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Europe:
- Iran-Saudi hostilities and attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities increase risk premium on Brent crude (+3.00%), pushing European gas prices higher (+3.57% TTF).
- Black Sea → Europe:
- Russian gas pipeline closure exacerbates European supply concerns, supporting EU gas storage marginal increase (+0.30%) but not alleviating price pressures.
- Russia → Europe:
- Missile strikes on Kyiv’s power grid add to regional instability, indirectly pressuring energy infrastructure and market sentiment.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €42.09/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 16.78 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $80.38/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 46.40% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- GERI spike (+8) outpaces moderate price increases in Brent and TTF, indicating market may underprice full geopolitical risk impact.
- VIX remains subdued, suggesting equity volatility is not fully reflecting energy sector stress.
- EUR/USD depreciation aligns with risk-off sentiment but lags behind energy price moves, indicating potential currency underreaction.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The sharp rise in GERI (+8) driven by severe Middle East conflict alerts and Black Sea pipeline closures signals elevated supply risk in global energy markets. Brent crude and European gas prices have reacted with 3%+ daily gains, reflecting immediate market repricing of geopolitical risk. However, equity volatility (VIX) and currency moves remain muted, suggesting incomplete risk transmission across asset classes. The initiation of US-Iran talks introduces a potential de-escalation path but current probabilities favor continued volatility and risk premium persistence. Traders should prepare for a possible regime shift to medium risk, with heightened sensitivity to further infrastructure attacks or shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. LNG and storage sectors will be key focal points for supply balancing amid pipeline uncertainties. Maintaining dynamic hedges and monitoring multi-week risk indicators is advised.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: Ceasefire Holds · Probability: 40% illustrative weight, not a calibrated forecast
Observed outcome: BRENT +0.00% between recorded quotes; TTF +3.57% between recorded quotes; GERI 17 → 25. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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