GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
17 / 100
LOW1 day -2 · 7 day 2
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Pirates Become More: GERI 17 | Energy Risk Jun 20 — June 20, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 17 (LOW) on 2026-06-19. The brief covers 17 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 17; 1-day change: -2.
- 17 alerts considered from 2026-06-19.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€40.64/MWh
-1.67%
Source date: 2026-06-19
VIX
16.78 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-06-18
Brent Crude
$80.38/bbl
+3.00%
Source date: 2026-06-19
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-06-19
EU Gas Storage
46.10%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-06-19
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates Become More Aggressive Using Gunfire in Attempts to Board Ships | 5 | 4.1% | Maritime Executive |
| SATORP Refinery Damage from Iran Conflict Delays Full Recovery to 2027 | TotalEnergies - News and Statistics - IndexBox | 5 | 29.1% | Saudi Aramco & Saudi Oil |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone, with global geopolitical tensions persisting but showing signs of containment.
- Contagion Status: Moderate cross-regional spillover, primarily from Middle East conflict and Eastern Europe war impacts. Risk remains elevated but with reduced volatility spikes.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 17
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East conflict risks (Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, Iranian refinery damage) continue to exert upward pressure on global oil prices and shipping insurance costs, spilling into global energy risk.
- Eastern Europe war impacts (Locked — free account,Locked — free account+ strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, Russian fuel rationing) maintain elevated European risk but with signs of adaptation, reflected in EERI decrease.
- Global piracy aggression increases war-risk insurance costs, indirectly affecting shipping and energy supply chains worldwide.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €40.64/MWh | -1.67% |
| VIX | 16.78 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $80.38/bbl | +3.00% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 46.10% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Brent crude price (+3%) outpaces GERI decline (-2), indicating market pricing in persistent supply risks beyond current risk index improvements.
- TTF gas down (Locked — free account) despite stable EU gas storage (Locked — free account) and lower EERI (Locked — free account), suggesting market confidence in near-term European gas supply resilience.
- VIX modestly up (+0.38) despite risk indices declining, highlighting latent uncertainty from war and piracy risks.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The risk environment is cautiously stabilizing, supported by tentative ceasefire developments in the Middle East and a slight easing in European energy risk despite ongoing war infrastructure attacks. Brent crude’s 3% rise reflects market concern over sustained supply disruptions, particularly from the damaged SATORP refinery and increased piracy risks. Meanwhile, European gas prices are modestly retreating, underpinned by healthy storage levels and reduced immediate risk perception. Volatility remains subdued but poised to spike if geopolitical tensions reignite. Traders should monitor ceasefire durability and Russian energy infrastructure attacks closely, as these remain key drivers for potential regime shifts. The current environment favors a balanced approach with selective exposure to oil price upside and LNG/storage stability.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +1.41% between recorded quotes; TTF -1.67% between recorded quotes; GERI 19 → 17. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
Create a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios.
| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
Get tomorrow’s risk signals before the market moves.
Open a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios. Real-time features depend on product subscription.
Create free accountDaily Intelligence Report is an account-managed paid product.