GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
12 / 100
LOW1 day -5 · 7 day -6
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Oil shock to: GERI 12 | Energy Risk Jun 14 — June 14, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 12 (LOW) on 2026-06-13. The brief covers 11 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 12; 1-day change: -5.
- 11 alerts considered from 2026-06-13.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€46.77/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-06-12
VIX
17.68 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-06-12
Brent Crude
$86.80/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-06-12
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-06-12
EU Gas Storage
44.30%
+0.40 pp
Source date: 2026-06-13
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil shock to inflation risk: How Middle East war is reshaping India's economic outlook - MSN | 5 | 3.6% | India Oil & Energy |
| Ukraine Drone Strikes Sparks Fire At Russian Port | 5 | 12.8% | gCaptain Maritime |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk environment, indicated by declining GERI and EERI indices.
- Contagion Status: Regional conflicts persist but have not escalated into broader systemic risk; contagion contained mainly within Middle East and Europe.
- Market Volatility: VIX down 1.76% to 17.68, reflecting reduced equity market stress despite geopolitical tensions.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 12
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Asia: Elevated oil shock risk continues to pressure Asian inflation expectations, particularly India, but recent oil price drop (-2.61%) eases immediate cost-push inflation concerns.
- Europe → Global: Ukraine attacks and nuclear plant tensions maintain European risk but limited contagion to global financial markets, supported by stable EU gas storage (+0.40%) and mild TTF gas price change (-0.28%).
- Middle East → Global Food Security: US strike near Oman raises risk for global shipping lanes, potentially impacting food security, but no immediate price spikes observed.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €46.77/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 17.68 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $86.80/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 44.30% | +0.40 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: Despite high-level conflict alerts (multiple 5/5), energy prices (Brent, TTF) and volatility (VIX) have softened, indicating a lag in market reaction or profit-taking after prior spikes.
- Inflation Risk: Oil shock warnings contrast with Brent’s 2.61% decline, suggesting markets price in near-term supply stabilization or demand concerns.
- Currency: EUR/USD down 0.23% aligns with modest risk-off but no sharp flight to safety.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite multiple high-severity geopolitical alerts, recent market data show a partial decoupling between risk signals and asset price reactions. Brent crude’s 2.61% decline and stable European gas conditions suggest markets are pricing in either short-term de-escalation or demand concerns. However, elevated Middle East geopolitical stress and ongoing Ukraine conflict maintain a non-negligible risk premium, especially for inflation in Asia and energy security in Europe. Traders should monitor key conflict flashpoints and energy storage metrics closely, as regime transition probabilities indicate potential for renewed volatility and price spikes. Strategic positioning should balance hedges against sudden geopolitical escalations with readiness to capitalize on stabilization trends.
---
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +0.00% between recorded quotes; TTF -0.28% between recorded quotes; GERI 17 → 12. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
Create a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios.
| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
Get tomorrow’s risk signals before the market moves.
Open a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios. Real-time features depend on product subscription.
Create free accountDaily Intelligence Report is an account-managed paid product.